FSU football: FEI advanced metrics for Noles after four games

The FSU football team hasn’t played a full game at their best in 2023 through four games. We’ve seen the offense look elite for stretches and times, downright terrible.

The defense has looked like FSU defenses from the 90s at times, and other times struggled to get off of the field on third down, though they’ve done well keeping teams out of the end zone for the most part.

One way to measure teams is by using advanced metrics that consider the strength of schedule and garbage time. One I’ve used over the years has been FEI.

No advanced metric model is flawless, because it’s impossible to account for every variable. Ultimately, teams have to start somewhere with preseason projections, and I disagreed with where FEI had the Noles before games got played. FSU finished the 2022 season at No. 9 overall, with the No. 7 offense and No. 34 defense, and returned more production and experience than anyone nationally.

When I saw in the preseason projections at No. 22 overall, No. 17 offensively, and No. 33 defensively, I scratched my head. However, I know the numbers would work themselves out as more actual game data becomes available, and we have a decent data point to look at through four games.

This is where preseason projections still muddy the waters because FSU has two of the best wins in college football through four weeks. How could LSU be ahead of FSU after four weeks, when the Noles dominated the second half of that game after a close first half? However, the Noles come in at No. 14 overall, No. 13 offensively, and No. 35 defensively.

The offense averages 43.5 ppg and is among the most explosive in the nation, but lacks consistency on a down-to-down basis. The FSU defense is bending, but not breaking, and getting off the field 37 percent of the time on third downs(No. 60 nationally).

They are tied with Clemson at No. 58 nationally, allowing 22.5 ppg. The FSU defense has allowed the same number of touchdowns as Clemson (11) through four games and forced a turnover in every game against a tougher schedule.

FSU’s defensive passing numbers have been affected greatly by the absence of safety Akeem Dent, similar to how the run defense was with the absence of Fabien Lovett last season. I expect both units to improve as guys get healthier and face some teams they can beat up on.

These are metrics we’ll track as the season progresses.