FSU football: Top 10 bold predictions for 2023 season

FSU defense will hold opposing offenses to 32 percent or less on third down conversions

I expect this FSU defense to surprise a lot of folks this year. Adam Fuller’s defense have made considerable leaps year-over-year, but he finally has enough horses and depth to be more aggressive, opposed to forcing team to make mistakes to end drives.

The returning experience and added talent should make teams have lower success rates on early downs, forcing more third and predictable situations. FSU improved from 41 percent third down conversions allowed in 2021 to 35 percent allowed in 2022.

Many of those third downs converted last year were third and short or medium once Fabien Lovett was not available. I expect those third and short/mediums to decrease, which will allow more success in getting offenses off the field in 2023.

A team allowing 32 percent third conversions has ranked top 15-20 over the last two years in that category. There’s no reason FSU shouldn’t be in that ballpark this year.