FSU football: Cheez-It Bowl prediction and primer for 2023 season

FSU football (9-3) has a lot riding on its final game of the season, a Cheez-It Bowl birth against the Oklahoma Sooners (6-6).

FSU head coach Mike Norvell has communicated this game is about this 2022 team, and that’s true. However, it’s also a primer for expectations in the upcoming 2023 season.

The Noles enter the Cheez-It Bowl as -9.5 betting favorites, with a points total over/under at 66.

Those odds imply a 38-28 win for the Noles. FSU fans would take that win, but there’s excitement around this program we haven’t felt since the 2017 opener against Alabama when the Noles were top-five.

An impressive win over Oklahoma likely means the Noles will begin the 2023 season around the top 10 for the first time since 2017.

Oklahoma is without at least three offensive starters, and their defense was the weakest part of their team. Oklahoma is better than their record, but the confidence and expectations from FSU fans feel like they expect another blowout. FSU won their final five regular season games by an average of 28 points.

I would be surprised if FSU won by that margin because of the long layoff. It might take both teams a few series to settle in, but this game will set the tone going into the off-season and next year.

If FSU plays well and puts Oklahoma away in impressive fashion, FSU football fans will be insufferable for the next few months. Oklahoma allowed 48 points in regulation in their final regular season game against Texas Tech, whose offense ranks No. 45 via FEI advanced metrics.

FSU’s offense ranks No. 8 via the same metrics, and I see them scoring north of 40 points. This FSU football team has a laser focus on getting their 10th win this season, and all of their starters will play in this game. It might be close for a half, but I see FSU putting the stamp on them as the game progresses.

Prediction: FSU 45, Oklahoma 27