FSU football: Adjusted win shares of five games left

November 12th @Syracuse

Here’s what I said in my game-by-game predictions before the season:

"FSU got their first win against Syracuse last year when they were still trying to figure things out on both sides of the ball. Syracuse returns much of their defense, but their offense consists of their running back and no passing game. Syracuse plays a murderer’s row schedule and will likely be demoralized by the time FSU rolls to upstate New York. They will probably be better than their record indicates. However, FSU is the more talented team on both sides of the ball. Outside of FSU turning the ball over multiple times, I don’t see Syracuse scoring enough to get past the Noles."

Syracuse has surpassed expectations record-wise, not suffering their first loss until Saturday against Clemson on the road. It was a game they should have on being they were +4 in the turnover department before they threw an interception on their final drive.

However, the inverse of what I predicted has happened because they could easily be 3-4 right now. They easily could have lost to a bad Virginia team, Purdue, and they got lucky they played NC State the week after FSU knocked out their starting QB for the season.

Their offense relies heavily on three players, which is why Clemson held them to 14 offensive points Saturday, despite the four turnovers. I think they got beat up against Clemson and still have to play Notre Dame and Pittsburgh before hosting FSU.

I had this game at .75 before the season and will keep it there. As long as the FSU defense is healthy and the offense doesn’t crap the bed, FSU wins this game.