FSU football: Adjusted win shares of five games left

November 5th vs. Miami

Here’s what I said in my game-by-game predictions before the season:

"Miami enters the season with a ton of undeserved hype because they got new coaching staff. Mario Cristobal does inherit a good quarterback, but he usually limits what his quarterbacks can do because of his propensity to run the ball all the time. Miami struggled to run the ball last year against FSU, and their defense was suspect. Team will have more footage of Tyler Van Dyke’s tendencies, and Miami lost their top two wide receivers from last year. The game will be on the road, but that shouldn’t phase FSU fans when they turn the Hard Rock into Doak South. FSU made Miami attempt to beat them through the air last year, and they couldn’t get it done. Crisotbal’s philosophy of running the ball a ton will play right into FSU’s hands, and any playaction they attempt shouldn’t be effective. I’m not sold on Kevin Steele’s defenses either, so I’m taking FSU to win this one to knock the Cristobal hype train off of the tracks."

I mean, I don’t think I could have said it better. Miami has only beaten one Power 5 team all season and has blowout losses against Middle Tennessee State and Duke. Miami quarterback Tyler Van Dyke left the Duke game with an apparent shoulder injury, and his status is up in the air. However, it’s not like he’s been good this year, as I predicted.

Miami’s defense is suspect as I predicted, and they are not a very good football team. It’s a rivalry game, and crazy things can happen, but if FSU football doesn’t beat Miami, it’ll say more about FSU than anything about Miami.

The way their season has gone, there will likely be more FSU football fans at the game than Miami fans. I had this one at .55 before the season, but I’m increasing it to .70. If Tyler Van Dyke doesn’t play, I’d put it at .75.