FSU football: Adjusted win shares of five games left

October 29th vs. Georgia Tech

Here’s what I wrote my game-by-game predictions before the season:

"Georgia Tech was awful last season and lost their best offensive player when Jahmyr Gibbs transferred to Alabama. The Yellow Jackets ranked No. 79 offensively with Gibbs and No. 112 defensively according to FEI advanced metrics. Not to mention they’ll likely come into the FSU game with a losing record and ready to quit on a staff that will likely get fired at the end of the season. They have a new offensive coordinator but still don’t have a good quarterback, and the offensive line has question marks. Georgia Tech’s defense struggled to get pressure on quarterbacks and splash plays behind the line of scrimmage. That’s a recipe for disaster against the Noles."

I had the Noles at a .80 chance of winning this game. Georgia Tech just lost against a Virginia team that had not beaten at a Power 5 opponent all season at home Thursday night. Their starting QB Jeff Sims left the game with an ankle/foot injury, and it’s not clear if he’ll play. All of what I said is true, and if Sims doesn’t play, FSU should win by multiple touchdowns. I’m going to go that he’ll play, but I now have this game at .85