FSU baseball: Analyzing why Noles were one of last four in Field of 64

FSU baseball (33-23) tied the record for the 44th consecutive season of making the NCAA Tournament in 2022.

The Noles will be a No. 3 seed in the Auburn Regional, taking on No. 2 seed UCLA in the opener Friday afternoon. However, FSU not making the tournament for the first time in most of our lifetimes was a real possibility when the announcement came the Noles were one of the last four teams admitted without an automatic bid.

I know some FSU baseball fans were shocked, and admittedly, I wasn’t aware they were in that much danger of not making the tournament.

I said on the latest Built For Playmakers podcast, most projections had them in the Auburn Regional as a three seed.

The Noles finished the season with a 29 RPI ranking and the No. 5 toughest schedule nationally. They finished .500 in arguably the toughest conference in the country, with the ACC getting nine teams into the Field of 64.

However, when you look at the big picture, it’s not too far-fetched to see the Noles barely making it in. It’s not like the Noles finished the season on fire. They were 7-8 in their last 15 games, with four of those wins coming against quad three teams in Jacksonville and Boston College. Two of those losses were against Boston College and another quad three team, Stetson.

The Noles did manage to take two of three from Miami, but Miami didn’t finish the season strong, going 4-6 in their last 10. The Noles were in a good position to host a regional with a strong finish after beating TCU, although it wasn’t a lock.

Just as we knew finishing strong would help secure that regional host spot, the losses pushed that situation farther away. I know FSU has played a tough schedule, but there’s a human element with the committee that looks at different scenarios.

FSU swept Louisville, but also got swept by Notre Dame and a North Carolina team that finished .500 in the ACC. FSU also lost series against Clemson and Georgia Tech, who were .500 in the conference. However, I think the biggest factor was how they played in those 15 games in May. A team that’s fighting for a regional host spot should put it all on the line to make it happen, but that’s not what FSU did.

Those losses to Boston College, Stetson, and going life and death with Jacksonville in early May did them no favors. The Noles getting swept by North Carolina in their last conference series did no favors.

Yes, FSU deserves to be in the tournament, but let’s not act like they have been anywhere close to elite because they haven’t.

The good news is they have an opportunity to make everyone who doubts them eat crow, including myself, starting with UCLA on Friday. I’ll have the game preview later this week.