FSU baseball: Where advanced metrics rank Noles after Florida loss

FSU baseball (32-19, 15-12 ACC) suffered a walk-off loss against the rival Florida Gators Tuesday night. A look at where advanced rankings have the Noles.

It was a game the Noles had opportunities to win. I wrote about Florida’s power and how FSU needed to keep the bases empty if they allowed home runs.

They allowed three home runs, and two of them were solo shots. However, one of them was a two-run shot that would have been the game-winner had noone been on base.

I question why Mike Martin Jr. went to Andrew Armstrong in that situation since he hasn’t pitched much all year.

Nevertheless, it’s a series loss against a rival and hurts their slim chances of hosting a regional. FSU’s RPI dropped to No. 21 after the loss.

Here’s where advanced rankings from Massey have the Noles going into the final ACC series against North Carolina:

• Ranking-No. 22
• Offense-No. 87
• Power-No. 26
• Defense-No. 4
• Strength of Schedule-No. 3
• Remaining Strength of Schedule-No. 2
• Remaining Wins Expected-1.44
• Remaining Losses Expected-1.56

The ranking continues to be about right for the Noles for a team that’s heavily dependant on their starting pitching. The offense has improved somewhat over the last few weeks, but overall they continue to leave runners in scoring position, and don’t execute situational hitting that well.

The good news is Bryce Hubbart seems to have regained his form as one of the best pitchers in the nation. The duo of Parker Messick and Hubbart gives them a chance against anyone. Wyatt Crowell and Davis Hare have been lights out from the bullpen of late.

Massey rankings predict a close series against North Carolina, who ranks No. 32. FSU should have the edge from a pitching perspective, and both teams are similar offensively. It’ll come down to which team can capitalize with runners on base and situationally. The Tarheels are 26-6 at home and we’ll have the series preview Thursday morning.