FSU baseball: Advanced metrics rank the Noles just right

FSU baseball went on a four-game winning streak last week, avenging a previous loss against rival Florida and sweeping top 10 ranked Louisville.

The win inserted the Noles back into the national rankings of two sites, No. 9 at Baseball America and No. 17 at Perfect Game. The Noles had been as high as No. 5 before getting swept by Notre Dame and losing seven of nine games.

While rankings mean very little because it is the opinions of humans, I like to use advanced metrics in baseball, just as I do in football.

Massey Rankings are similar to Football Outsiders, and here’s how the Noles stack up:

• Ranking-No. 22
• Offense-No. 88
• Power-No. 23
• Defense-No. 7
• Strength of Schedule-No. 3
• Remaining Strength of Schedule-No. 3
• Remaining Wins Expected-11.33
• Remaining Losses Expected-7.67

The No. 22 ranking is about right, considering who FSU baseball has beaten and the teams that have beaten them. The Noles are not a perfect team, but these rankings provide an overall picture of what they are.

They have excellent pitching, for the most part, solid defense, and are difficult to score runs against. It’s why they have a No. 7 rating defensively. Their biggest flaw is on offense, where they rank No. 88, which equates to power to score runs. The lack of offense is why I can’t realistically consider them a top 10 team.

FSU has scored 213 runs, which ranks No. 142 nationally. FSU has the potential to beat any team in the country because of their starting pitching. However, they have struggled to score runs against good starting pitching.

Good starting pitching is what they will face in the postseason, which is why I’ve been so adamant about the adjustments they needed to make at the plate. I did see some of those adjustments against Louisville, but the Cardinals’ pitching staff isn’t what I’d consider good, either.

However, it’s a step in the right direction. The hope is they’ll continue that approach when they take on Georgia Southern Wednesday night. They have a collective ERA of 5.05 and nobody on their staff has an ERA below 3.35.

They average fewer than a strikeout per inning and opposing teams have a .260 batting average. Their pitchers have allowed 46 home runs in 35 games. If that doesn’t spell it’s time to put up some offensive numbers, I don’t know what is.