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FSU football: Advanced analytics suggest 2021 Noles improving

By Kelvin Hunt

DURHAM, NC - OCTOBER 14: A detailed view of a helmet worn by the Florida State Seminoles during their game against the Duke Blue Devils at Wallace Wade Stadium on October 14, 2017 in Durham, North Carolina. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images)
DURHAM, NC - OCTOBER 14: A detailed view of a helmet worn by the Florida State Seminoles during their game against the Duke Blue Devils at Wallace Wade Stadium on October 14, 2017 in Durham, North Carolina. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images) /
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FSU football enters their bye week with a 2-4 record, a record that could easily be 3-3, 4-2, or 5-1 with a couple of breaks in their favor.

A segment of FSU fans remains results-oriented, and it is a resulted-oriented business. However, from a macro point of view, that’s not the best way to measure the progress of a program going through a rebuild.

It’s short-sighted to do so because a variety of factors can influence a team’s record. It could be as simple as playing a slate of weaker teams earlier in the schedule. For example, we saw Syracuse come to 0-4 FSU with a 3-1 record after beating inferior teams and lose.

Advanced metrics are not flawless by any stretch of the imagination, but they are more accurate in measuring progress than simple wins and losses.

They account for competition levels, offensive and defensive efficiency, etc. There are several out there, but I usually use SP+ with Bill Connelly or FEI with Brian Fremeau.

Since SP+ isn’t free anymore, I’m using FEI here so everyone can have access to the stats. When we look at the 2020 season, FSU ranks in the following categories:

  • Overall: 103
  • Offense: 95
  • Defense: 108

We’re halfway through the 2021 season with FSU playing a decent slate of games through the first six games. FSU ranks in the following categories:

  • Overall: 58
  • Offense: 48
  • Defense: 61

The Noles didn’t play Clemson or Florida in 2020 and haven’t played them yet in 2021. The year-to-year comparison isn’t apples to apples, but does suggest the Noles are an improved team over last year. They are closer to the 2019 team:

  • Overall: 54
  • Offense: 65
  • Defense: 38

Final Thoughts

It’ll be interesting to see where this team finishes the year, but this is the type of progress one would hope to see, despite the poor overall record. If the Noles can finish the season inside the top 50 in all three categories? I think that would be an incredible job for this coaching staff, and we’ll be checking these each week to see where they stand.

Trending. Where Has 2021 FSU Improved The Most?. light

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