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FSU football: Is ESPN’s FPI metric accurate for the Noles?

By Kelvin Hunt

TALLAHASSEE, FL - AUGUST 31: A general view in front of Doak Campbell Stadium before the Florida State Seminoles host the Boise State Broncos for the season homer on August 31, 2019 in Tallahassee, Florida. The game was moved from Jacksonville, Florida because of Hurricane Dorian. (Photo by Don Juan Moore/Getty Images)
TALLAHASSEE, FL - AUGUST 31: A general view in front of Doak Campbell Stadium before the Florida State Seminoles host the Boise State Broncos for the season homer on August 31, 2019 in Tallahassee, Florida. The game was moved from Jacksonville, Florida because of Hurricane Dorian. (Photo by Don Juan Moore/Getty Images) /
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The 2021 FSU football schedule will be one of the more difficult schedules in the country.

According to ESPN’s FPI metric, the Noles will have the 20th most difficult schedule in the nation.

The Noles will open up the season hosting Notre Dame, who made the ACC Championship game and College Football Playoff.

The Noles will travel to North Carolina, Clemson, and Florida while hosting the Miami Hurricanes.

ESPN’s FPI metric projects the Noles to win 6.1 games and a 65.4 percent chance of winning six games and going to a bowl game.

Clemson, Notre Dame, and Florida finished in the top 10 of the final 2020 rankings. North Carolina finished No. 13, and Miami finished No. 18.

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That’s a tough five games in which the Noles will likely be betting underdogs. It depends on how things shake out, but FSU likely only has a realistic shot at winning two of those games.

The Noles have Jacksonville State and UMass, who are the most likely wins, so it’s the remaining five games that will have the biggest influence on their season.

The combined records for Louisville, Wake Forest, Syracuse, Boston College, and NC State last season was 23-38.

FSU has split games with Louisville and NC State the past two years and defeated both Syracuse and Boston College in 2019(they didn’t face them in the abbreviated schedule last season). Syracuse only won once, and Boston College finished 6-5 last year.

I think Syracuse is a game to most likely pencil in as a win, so the Noles need to find three more wins on the schedule to reach bowl eligibility. The Noles brought in a ton of transfer players just for this reason in the 2021 recruiting class.

They needed experienced players to plug and play to gain an edge over teams like Wake Forest, Boston College, and NC State. Had they gone with the freshman youth movement, their chances of winning those games likely decrease quite a bit.

I think ESPN’s FPI metric is fairly accurate here. I think FSU’s chances of winning six games is better than 50 percent, barring some crazy injuries, etc. How many wins are you seeing on the schedule right now?

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