FSU football: Can ‘Noles turnaround happen quicker than most think?

FSU football looks to get back to respectability after three consecutive years with a losing record.

The Noles haven’t recruited at an elite level since Jimbo Fisher’s last class in 2017, and the lack of development has been a problem since before Fisher left the program.

Recruiting and lack of development continued to drop-off under Willie Taggart, and the challenge for Mike Norvell is turning both around.

That process was halted due to the pandemic in 2020, but the 2021 recruiting class may have pointed the Noles in the right direction.

I wrote about how Mike Norvell transitioned to using the transfer portal instead of lower-ranked three-star high school players to try and win in 2021.

I’ve used advanced metrics from Football Outsiders for years, and they released some numbers that indicate the Noles could be closer to turning things around than people think.

This article has the Noles checking in at No. 19 in their Returning Talent Index.

"The Returning Talent Index is simple: the index is your team’s talent composite weighted by returning production, plus net transfer ratings, plus incoming recruiting ratings, normalized to a mean of 0 and a standard deviation of 1. A returning talent index of 1.5 means your team improved by 1.5 standard deviations relative to average, and a returning talent index of -0.25 means your team got worse by a quarter of a standard deviation relative to average."

When it comes to the ACC, the Noles are one of five teams with a positive outlook for 2021. The Noles are behind Clemson, Miami, and North Carolina.

The challenge for Mike Norvell is becoming competent enough to beat teams ranked below those three, and addressing recruiting to sign enough elite talent to close the gap.

That seems to be happening with the 2022 and 2023 recruiting classes. The Noles already have commitments from several players rated as quality blue-chip players and are in the mix for several others.

The other component is the development of the players signed. That seems to be happening, although we won’t have a clear gauge until after games get played in the fall. If we see the Noles begin to beat the likes of NC State, Boston College, Louisville, Wake Forest, and others.

As a side note, Notre Dame lists as a team on the negative side in terms of the Returning Talent Index.

A win against Notre Dame in the 2021 season opener would be a clear sign the turnaround will be quicker than most thought.