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FSU basketball: Bettors think UNC-G covers spread against Noles?

By Kelvin Hunt

Florida State Seminoles guard M.J. Walker (23) claps during a game between FSU and the University of North Carolina at Donald L. Tucker Civic Center Monday, Feb. 3, 2020.Fsu Vs Unc Mens Basketball 020320 Ts 1637
Florida State Seminoles guard M.J. Walker (23) claps during a game between FSU and the University of North Carolina at Donald L. Tucker Civic Center Monday, Feb. 3, 2020.Fsu Vs Unc Mens Basketball 020320 Ts 1637 /
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FSU basketball fans only care about one thing, and that’s advancing to the second round of the NCAA Tournament with the way the Noles have played the last few games.

FSU choked away chances to win the ACC Regular Season and ACC Conference titles, losing to Notre Dame and Georgia Tech.

They’ll take on a scrappy UNC-Greensboro team in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, with betting lines opening at -11 to -11.5, but that line has already moved to -10.5.

This line movement means most bettors wagering on the game believe UNC-Greensboro will cover the initial spread.

Florida State Seminoles Basketball
Florida State Seminoles Basketball /

Florida State Seminoles Basketball

According to the Action Network, well over 60 percent of the bets were on the Noles, and now that number dropped to 55 percent.

I suppose it makes sense with the game not taking place in the Tucker Center, where the Noles are nearly unbeatable. UNC-Greensboro is also 17-12 against the spread, with FSU basketball checking at 11-9-2.

ESPN’s Basketball Power Index gives the Noles a 79.1 percent chance of winning the game. I think the Noles will win, but it depends on which FSU team shows up regarding if they’ll cover the spread.

FSU has obliterated teams this season and has 11 of their wins by 11 points or more. UNC-Greensboro doesn’t shoot well overall and they only shoot 30 percent from three-point range as a team.

They are not a great free-throw shooting team, but they rebound well and average over seven steals per game.

As I said, I believe FSU basketball will win the game out-right, but whether they cover the spread or not will come down to two things:

  • Limiting turnovers
  • Limiting UNC-G on offensive boards

If they can do those two things, they should blow the Spartans out. We’ve seen FSU rebound the wall fairly well all season, and even with 25 turnovers against Georgia Tech, it was still a game until late. If the line continues to go in UNC-G’s favor? I’d side with the Noles to cover the spread despite how poorly they played against Georgia Tech.

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