FSU football may be the largest home underdog in its history against Clemson.
FSU football has seen the betting spread against Clemson to get bigger and bigger every year. The betting spread was +4.5 in the 2016 game.
The 2017 game saw the Clemson Tigers enter the game against FSU as -16.5 point betting favorites.
FSU entered the 2018 game as +18 point underdogs and were +25.5 point underdogs in the 2019 game.
Well, that gap has gotten larger for the 2020 game as the Noles will enter the Clemson game as +34.5 point betting underdogs at home.
The scary part is the Noles haven’t covered the spread since the 2016 game when they should have won outright, but lost by only three points.
- 2017-Clemson won 34-14
- 2018-Clemson won 59-10
- 2019-Clemson won 45-14
The 2017 game wasn’t as close as the score indicates. I know some FSU football fans say FSU was in a position to take the lead in that game in the fourth quarter. However, that game could have easily been 24-0, Clemson, at halftime had they not fumbled inside the five-yard line midway through the second quarter.
I’m convinced Clemson could have scored 100 points in 2018, and that’s after being held scoreless in the first quarter. It’s still unbelievable FSU was able to hold them scoreless in the first quarter of that game.
The 2019 game wasn’t much better as it was 28-0 Clemson at halftime. This 2020 team is less talented than all of those FSU teams, and Clemson is coming off their first ACC loss in forever and a bye-week.
That’s probably not a great combination for the Noles. ESPN’s FPI Index gives the Noles a 2.4 percent chance of winning the game.
I guess crazier things have happened, but there’s a greater chance Clemson will win this game by 50 points than if the Noles could win it outright. I’m fine with that, and I need to see the guys keep giving effort and eliminating the self-inflicted mistakes.