FSU Football: Early FPI has Noles as underdogs in three 2018 games
By Jason Parker
FSU Football will have another tough schedule in 2018 – and the folks over at the Worldwide Leader don’t think they will get 10 regular season wins.
In recent years, the FSU football team has had the luxury of playing one of the toughest schedules in the country on a yearly basis – a mixture of a non-conference slate that included games like Alabama, Notre Dame, Ole Miss and Oklahoma State among others along with a much more competitive ACC thanks to Clemson, Miami and Louisville showing up.
The 2018 slate won’t be any different as the Seminoles will host Virginia Tech to open the season along with the Tigers and rival Florida Gators along with road trips to the Hurricanes, Cardinals, N.C. State and the Fighting Irish. Needless to say, the Noles are going to have their work cut out if they want to get 10 regular season wins for the first time since 2015.
According to the folks over at ESPN with their Football Power Index, FSU football will fall just short of that benchmark this season – at least at this point in the preseason. The latest FPI included odds for each team’s games and the Noles found themselves as underdogs in three of the games on their slate.
"vs. Virginia Tech – 63.5 percent chance of winningvs. Samford – 98.5 percentat Syracuse – 72 percentvs. Northern Illinois – 90.1 percentat Louisville – 55.9 percentat Miami – 31.7 percentvs. Wake Forest – 75.3 percentvs. Clemson – 23.7 percentat N.C. State – 61 percentat Notre Dame – 18 percentvs. Boston College – 73.7 percentvs. Florida – 60.6 percent"
Okay, I’ll give you the Clemson game since for the last three seasons the Tigers have been the kings of the conference and are likely a favorite to make it back to the College Football Playoff – but there is no way that Notre Dame would beat this Seminoles team four out of every five times they played in simulations. People forget that as long as Brian Kelly is there, the Irish are good for a choke job each November.
As for the Hurricanes, people seem to forget that in their best year in over a decade, they needed a miracle touchdown with six seconds left to beat FSU football in one of our worst years in the last 40 seasons. Right now, Mark Richt still is deciding if Malik Rosier is a better quarterback then several players that didn’t touch the field last season – which means he isn’t if there is still a question.
Frankly, I was more surprised that the FPI didn’t have the Seminoles as an underdog to the Wolfpack coming off the Clemson game (and before Notre Dame) considering our “fun” in Raleigh over the past 20 seasons – plus, someone must still have a lot of confidence in Louisville despite losing Lamar Jackson to say we’re on a 56 percent favorite.
Next: ‘Noles schedule difficult even without neutral game opener
Is the schedule tough to the point where FSU football could be lucky to win eight games? Of course it is. Is this Seminoles team better than a lot of people who are blinded by last season might think? Of course they are. Only time will tell who is right – the Noles or some computers in Connecticut.