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Independence Bowl: Will ‘Noles cover spread against S. Mississippi?

By Kelvin Hunt

TALLAHASSEE, FL - OCTOBER 7: Running back Cam Akers #3 of the Florida State Seminoles carries the ball as defensive back Jaquan Johnson #4 of the Miami Hurricanes tries to tackle him during the first half of an NCAA football game at Doak S. Campbell Stadium on October 7, 2017 in Tallahassee, Florida. (Photo by Butch Dill/Getty Images)
TALLAHASSEE, FL - OCTOBER 7: Running back Cam Akers #3 of the Florida State Seminoles carries the ball as defensive back Jaquan Johnson #4 of the Miami Hurricanes tries to tackle him during the first half of an NCAA football game at Doak S. Campbell Stadium on October 7, 2017 in Tallahassee, Florida. (Photo by Butch Dill/Getty Images) /
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FSU is a big betting favorite in the Independence Bowl against Southern Mississippi. We talk if they’ll cover the spread.

The ‘Noles arrived in Louisiana a few days ago for the Independence Bowl against Southern Mississippi. A record 36th consecutive bowl game for an opportunity to extend to 40 plus years of consecutive winning seasons or better.

That seems really good right?

FSU opened as a two touchdown favorite against Southern Mississippi and has been bet up to -16.5 to -17 points according to SBROdds.

If you’ve followed the ‘Noles all season you know they were terrible against the spread. The did cover the spread in their final three games.

Now, two of those games were against Delaware State and Louisiana-Monroe, but they covered against arch rival Florida on the road with the help of defensive touchdowns.

Will they cover the spread against Southern Mississippi?

Thoughts

It’s hard to say as both teams haven’t played for weeks and rust is a real thing. Also, will FSU be fired up to play in a meaningless bowl against an opponent they’re supposed to roll?

Southern Mississippi isn’t a good team as they got rolled by Power 5 teams like Kentucky and Tennessee this year. However, they’re ranked No. 34 in the overall S&P rankings with FSU coming in at No. 51.

The ‘Noles will be playing without three starters on defense as Josh Sweat and Derwin James have elected to skip the Independence Bowl to prepare for the NFL Draft. Matthew Thomas isn’t going to be able to play in the bowl game either due to academic issues apparently.

FSU has the superior athletes across the board, in particularly in the trenches which is usually the biggest difference in these types of games.

Can Southern Mississippi stop the running game of FSU? They were able to hold both Kentucky and Tennessee to under 100 yards rushing in their matchups.

Will the ‘Noles be able to avoid turnovers in the game? The Southern Mississippi defense is has only allowed teams to convert third downs 33.14 percent of the time.

The FSU offense has converted third downs 33.56 percent of the time. So it’s going to be interesting to see how this game unfolds. I expect FSU to win the game, but I’m not sure I’d take them to cover a -17 spread.

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Then again, they could come out fired up under interim head coach Odell Haggins and play much looser as they did in their season finale against Louisiana-Monroe.

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