FSU vs Oregon Preview

Our Florida State vs. Oregon Preview examines how college football powerhouses Florida State and Oregon matchup against each other in the Rose Bowl. The game is set to kick off at 5:00 PM ET on New Year’s Day. The television broadcast will be on ESPN. Those traveling for the holidays can hear the game on Sirius XM’s channel 83.

Florida State faces one of its most difficult tasks of the season when it take on the potent Oregon Ducks on New Year’s Day. For the ‘Noles, this date with Oregon marks the second year in a row FSU finds itself in the Rose Bowl. While the terms of the game in Pasadena have changed this year, its level of importance still remains. Just a season ago the ‘Noles were playing against Auburn for “all the marbles”. Flash forward a year and FSU is in the first ever college football playoffs looking to get a spot in the big dance with a semifinal win over the PAC12’s champion.

Everything to Lose, Everything to Gain

Florida State, Oregon, Ohio State, and Alabama are all in unchartered water as the inaugural college football playoff will see its first games commence on the first of January. While there is much adversity with this new system, Florida State can relate to what it takes to be competitive and win in this environment. To this point, FSU saw a historic season in 2013 capped off with a national championship victory over SEC heavyweight, Auburn.

In contrast, Oregon has yet to win a national championship in program history. While the Ducks have a handful of Rose Bowl appearances under their belts they played in the BCS National Championship just once. In this game they were edged by the Auburn Tigers in the final seconds of the game.

When the ‘Noles have the Ball:

With the defenses that FSU has played so far this season leading up to this game in mind, it would seem that playing Oregon will be welcomed as the Ducks check in 102nd total defense. Yes, that is not a typo. The Ducks have given up a whopping 5,379 yards this season in their pass-happy conference. Furthermore, the Ducks check in at 120th in pass defense. This is easily the worst pass defense by the numbers that FSU has faced all year long.

An injury to Oregon’s defensive standout corner Ifo Ekpre-Olomu doesn’t help this cause for Oregon, either. With Ekpre-Olomu out, senior defensive back Troy Hill must emerge with a dominant performance if Oregon hopes to slow down Rashad Greene. It would seem that this already automatic target in Greene will become even more welcoming as Troy Hill has personally recorded just one interception this season.

As far as difference makers go on offense for the ‘Noles it really has been the tale of two halves of the season. Initially all of the hype was on the success of Jameis Winston with a curious interest in what senior halfback Karlos Williams could possibly do coming off a more than impressive season in 2013.

As the season has progressed more emphasis can be pinned to the success of Florida State’s dynamic freshman run threat Dalvin Cook when it comes to determining the outcome of the game. Look no further than the ACC championship game where Dalvin Cook single handedly racked up 177 yards and a touchdown on 31 carriers. His 5.7 yard per carry average against Georgia Tech garnered him MVP honors.

Cook’s success against Oregon will be predicated by the ability of the ‘Noles imposing revamped offensive line. This is a unit that has seen the addition of freshman Roderick Johnson at left tackle. Since this alteration, FSU ball carriers are enjoying a 6.2 yard per carry average.

When the Ducks have the Ball:

In Oregon’s explosive offensive attack Mariota has a tendency to run when he doesn’t feel comfortable throwing the ball in a tight window. This is also partially due to the scheme of the offense. This is an offense that allows for the development of a potent quarterback run game to force the secondary to get out of position at times when covering receivers.

Seen Below: Marcus Mariota’s rushing stats from 2012-2014

With notably more carries in 2014 Mariota’s production on the ground has declined from a season ago.

Or even 2012 for that matter.

All this said, it should be interesting to see how the ‘Noles top tacklers in linebackers Terrance Smith and Reggie Northrup hold up against the elusive Mariota. An FSU secondary that can focused entirely on defending the pass will prosper as the defense as a whole has racked up 13 interceptions on the season. While the odds of forcing a rare Mariota interception are unlikely as the quarterback has thrown just two this season there is still much importance on having success against Oregon’s core of wide receivers as this will allow for linebackers Terrance Smith and Reggie Northrup to contain Mariota if he doesn’t get the look he likes.

Oftentimes when Mariota does get the looks that he favors the Ducks have a tendency to score fast, really fast. This results in the Ducks checking in at 117th in the country in time of possession. The only other team that the ‘Noles have faced this season that rank worse in this department is the offensively challenged Syracuse Orange.

Special Teams

Enough cannot be said about the job that FSU kicker Robert Aguayo has done this season. During his career at Florida State Aguayo has missed a mere three field goals to zero PAT’s. In the rare scenario that Aguayo does miss a kick it probably won’t be because of anything that Oregon does to force the matter as Oregon has yet to record a blocked kick this season. The Ducks haven’t even block punt, for that matter.

Since Oregon kicker Aidan Schneider became Oregon’s designated field goal kicker he has only missed one field goal on nine attempts. Schneider’s longest make this season has been from 42 yards out.

Final Thoughts

As it pertains to offensive efficiency, this game feels similar to FSU’s game against Georgia Tech. It would seem that the age-old saying that “execution is key” will be very prevalent as both offenses seem to be hitting on all cylinders late into the season. With the margin of error so small Oregon will arguably be facing the most psychical and athletic defense in FSU that they’ve encountered since the program played Stanford in 2013. Whichever quarterback has the ball in their hands last may be the one that determines the outcome in this game. That said, Jameis Winston is 7-0 in games decided by one possession, while Marcus Mariota is 2-3.