Fun With Math and Strength of Schedule

If you’ve been associated with the Florida-Florida State rivalry for the past decade (or longer) you’ve undoubtedly heard the strength of schedule argument made against FSU.

Florida fans are quick to point out that the SEC is the premiere conference in football and that the ACC offers a paltry slate of games that never really tests FSU. To hear a Gator fan tell it, UF plays in the NFL’s minor leagues while FSU is a glorified JV team from the panhandle.

That rhetoric is fun for tailgate trash talk but there are some glaring holes in that logic. We’re not going to get into the fact that FSU produces as many pros (more, lately) as their SEC counterparts, or the fact that UF hasn’t left the state to play a non-conference game in any of their current players’ lifetimes. Nor will we split hairs about whether 6-6 in the SEC is more impressive than 6-6 in another conference (that’s relatively subjective considering some of the non-conference cupcakes SEC schools play — with a couple exceptions).

No let’s just do a little bit of math and look at why that argument is fairly asinine this year.

The NCAA calculates preseason strength of schedule by looking at opponents’ records from the previous season. Now, I realize this is an incredibly flawed metric — stupid even. Pretty much everybody agrees on that. But ask yourself, when was the last time an SEC fan made a strength of schedule argument and then stopped to consider the methodology of those rankings? Never? But I digress…

At any rate, using the NCAA’s (flawed) metric for determining preseason strength of schedule, Florida has the 22nd ranked schedule in the country:

"22. Florida – 91-62, 59.48%"

Florida State’s, by comparison is ranked 47th:

"47. Florida State – 83-68, 54.97%"

But before we get too deep into any discussion about who plays a tougher slate of games — both teams actually play very good competition this year — let’s just stick to the metric the NCAA uses and see what happens if Florida didn’t play Florida State.

The NCAA doesn’t factor in FCS teams, FBS-transition teams or bowl games. That’s already been applied to the figures above. But what happens when we take Florida off of Florida State’s schedule and vice versa? Well first we subtract 13 wins from Florida’s opponents’ won-loss record (the loss total stays the same, FSU didn’t lose any last year).

That puts us here:

"43. Florida – 78-62, 55.71%"

Then we subtract four wins and eight losses from FSU’s opponents’ record:

"35. Florida State – 79-60, 56.83%"

Florida drops 21 spots and FSU jumps up 12. This isn’t my personal opinion, it’s not trolling — its the NCAA’s math.

This preseason, in reality, the only reason Florida fans can crow about having a tougher strength of schedule — at least by the NCAA’s metrics — is because they get to play their rival at the end of the year and can let FSU’s 2013 record improve their SOS. FSU, by contrast, has Florida’s 4-8 record from last year dragging its SOS down.

In the greater scheme of things does any of this matter? NO.

But when has logic and rationale ever stopped football fans in the state of Florida from arguing?

Never.