Florida State will begin its quest for that elusive national title on Friday, hosting the St. John’s Red Storm at 3 p.m. in the Tallahassee Regional. The Noles are the odds-on favorites to advance to the Super Regionals, with the biggest challenge likely coming from the No. 2-seeded Coastal Carolina Chanticleers.
However, it’s baseball, and anything can happen, as evidenced in a ton of games this season, as top teams lost against inferior competition on numerous occasions.
The good news for Florida State is that they usually beat who they were supposed to beat, except for the West Coast debacle against Stanford. Â They won every midweek game, except those against Florida. It was the top teams that they struggled to beat consistently.
FSU should win the Tallahassee Regional. Here are three reasons that’ll be the case. However, we’ll also provide three reasons why that might not happen to keep it balanced:
Florida State has the best overall starting pitching in the regional. FSU starting pitchers went at least five innings in 76 percent of their starts. If that happens and the starting pitcher gives way to John Abraham or Chris Knier with a lead? It’s usually curtains for the opposing team.
Florida State is extremely tough to beat in Dick Howser Stadium. They went 27-4 at home this year. One of those losses was the day after they lost Myles Bailey for the season(predictable letdown against Duke). They lost by two runs against NC State, one run against Florida, and by three runs against Miami after leading for about 75 percent of that game. The Animals in Section B will be rocking, and Florida State usually plays well at home. They also know every nook and cranny in that stadium, which could come into play on offense and defense.
Florida State’s offense is usually serviceable and productive unless they are facing someone throwing flames. I don’t think any of the other teams in this regional have a multitude of guys who can do that. Florida State doesn’t have a ton of power, but it has more home runs than anyone else in this regional and knows how the ball carries at Howser. I’d expect them to do enough to support the starting pitching.
Three reasons they may not make it out of the Tallahassee Regional
Florida State’s offense is usually serviceable and productive, but it can go several innings without doing anything whatsoever. The number of non-competitive at-bats can be infuriating. We’ve seen them make an average pitcher look like prime John Smoltz this season. It’s an offense that’s not built to come from behind.
Florida State’s situational hitting and propensity to leave runners stranded on base could cost them. FSU strikes out way too much for a team with little power. If they strand runners and allow teams to hang around, they could very well let a team steal a game. We’ve seen that happen a few times this season.
The decision to start Bryson Moore could backfire(though I agree with the decision to start him). Of the three weekend starting pitchers, he’s the one with the lowest percentage (54 percent) of his starts going at least five innings. He hasn’t pitched in over two weeks, and it’s possible he gets chased from the game early. If that happens, and the bullpen gets taxed in an opening game loss. That would make it extremely difficult for Florida State to win four straight games with a depleted bullpen.
Some folks are picking Coastal Carolina to win the regional over Florida State, but I think that's influenced by Coastal making the College World Series last year. I like Florida State to advance to Super Regional play, as long as they don't beat themselves.
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