The Ashton Daniels-Duce Robinson connection has yet to click at Florida State, but it will need to in Week 3 for the Seminoles to have any chance of pulling off another upset of Alabama, entering Tuscaloosa as nearly a three-touchdown underdog in Week 3.
Robinson was first-team All-ACC in 2025, his first season as a Seminole after transferring from USC. He was a big-time play threat, averaging nearly 20 yards per reception, and cracked 1,000 yards on the year. Through two games in 2026, he’s been targeted 10 times and has just five catches for 75 yards.
For a variety of reasons, the Robinson breakout game has yet to come this season, but against a stout and suddenly hyper-aggressive Alabama defense led by coordinator Kane Wommack, Daniels will need to give his WR1 a chance to be the difference.
An Alabama upset starts with winning one-on-ones
The coach-speak and clichés were flowing in Mike Norvell’s press conference on Monday, but he had a real point when he said: “It’s still going to come down to a bunch of one-on-one plays. It’s good-on-good; talented players trying to create space.”
That will be the case on the outside when Florida State’s offense is on the field because the biggest strength of the Seminoles roster is, inarguably, the skill talent on offense at wide receiver and running back, while the best part of Kalen DeBoer’s Crimson Tide is his veteran-laden secondary.
That group has allowed Wommack to become his most blitz-happy self through two games this season, heating up Kentucky quarterback Kenny Minchey on about half of his dropbacks last week. He trusts his corners, Dijon Lee Jr. and Zabien Brown, on islands, and you have to imagine he’ll be comfortable doing the same on Saturday.
That hyper-aggressive mindset has yielded a lot of drive-killing sacks, tackles for loss, and takeaways, but there’s a flipside to that coin. With less help over the top, if you get beat, you get beat big. Kentucky, without a particularly talented group of wide receivers, managed a 9% explosive pass rate, and a week prior, ECU hit the same mark, a 53rd-percentile rate, which is not a fatal flaw for the Alabama defense but is, statistically, its biggest weakness. And Florida State’s wide receivers will be its biggest test so far.
Wommack needs to know if he can continue to live in this pressure-heavy world he’s found himself in, and the Florida State offense, even with all of Daniels’ flaws so far, is the best stress test because Robinson and Micahi Danzy are two big-play wide receivers who win in different ways, one with size, the other with speed, who could punish Lee and Brown on the outside.
The only problem is the quarterback, who has been reluctant to give his best playmakers a chance on the outside. Daniels has been turnover-prone throughout his career, so it seems he’s overcorrected in Year 5, holding onto the ball far too long and hardly ever giving his receivers a chance to win a 50/50 ball. This week he has to.
If Ashton Daniels doesn’t start trusting his receivers, he's in trouble
The Florida State offensive line will not hold up against Alabama’s defensive front, and he’s not good enough to shred the Tide from the pocket with quick-game. The yardage has to come in chunks, and his best chance to get them is by giving Robinson a chance downfield.
Robinson went 18/34 on contested catch opportunities last season. This year he’s 0/3, and no other FSU wide receiver has had a contested catch opportunity. That’s an alarming stat for Daniels, who doesn’t appear to have a particularly long leash as the starting QB. There aren’t going to be wide-open throwing windows against the Tide, so Daniels should trust his best receiver.
If the Noles connect on a few deep shots early, it could scare the Tide out of their blitz looks, which often double as loaded boxes against the run. From there, the game is still a mismatch, but at least on one side of the ball, it would be played on more even terms.
There’s a good chance that it doesn’t work, but it’s still the best chance FSU has.
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