![FloridaÕs Kevin OÕ Sullivan and FSUÕs Link Jarrett meet before the start of the game, March 10, 2026, at Condron Family Ballpark in Gainesville, Florida. [Cyndi Chambers/ Gainesville Sun] 2026](https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/upload/c_crop,x_0,y_364,w_3210,h_1805/c_fill,w_720,ar_16:9,f_auto,q_auto,g_auto/images/ImagnImages/mmsport/270/01krecj2xyma458pqbfa.jpg "FloridaÕs Kevin OÕ Sullivan and FSUÕs Link Jarrett meet before the start of the game, March 10, 2026, at Condron Family Ballpark in Gainesville, Florida. [Cyndi Chambers/ Gainesville Sun] 2026")
Florida State baseball (36-15, 17-10 ACC) has gone 5-1 over the last two ACC series and will have a chance to improve its ACC record when they host the rival Miami Hurricanes this weekend. The Noles can lock up a top-four spot and a first-round bye if they win the series against Miami.
A sweep would be optimal, but they must win the series if they want any shot at obtaining a top-eight national seed. Right now, Florida State’s RPI is No. 7 nationally, and they have played the fifth-toughest schedule nationally. However, they have the second-worst record against Quad 1 teams among teams in the top eight of the RPI.
Florida State still has the ACC Tournament,which could impact their chances to obtain a national seed, but as of right now, the projections for the Field of 64 would be the worst-case scenario:
Baseball America projects Florida State as the No. 9 seed, just as they were last year when they had to travel to the West Coast to face Oregon State in the Super Regionals. However, Florida State would be paired with the No. 8 Florida Gators in Super Regional play.
Florida State would love to play anyone except Florida in the Super Regionals, because their pitching has dominated FSU this year.
Florida has owned Florida State over the past two years and swept them in three separate games this season. One caveat: Florida has not faced Florida State’s best pitchers in those games, but Florida State’s offense has been dominated by Florida’s mid-week arms.
I suppose Florida State sending its best pitchers to the mound would close the gap somewhat, but the biggest issue is Florida State’s inability to score against Florida. They have scored six runs in three games and struck out 45 times in 97 at-bats (46.3 percent).
Not to mention the game would be on the road, and the environment would be crazy hostile. The Noles are 10-9 on the road overall this season. If the Noles can secure a No. 8 national seed, they’d at least host Super Regionals, where they are 25-3. This is a projection by Baseball America for now, but this would be a terrible outcome if it comes to fruition.
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