If you follow my work, you'll know I've been bullish on this 2025 FSU football team more than most. I understand fans who are in wait-and-see mode, but I can't deal with those who are pessimistic without sound reasoning.
Did FSU perform terribly on the field in 2024 and fail to meet any semblance of expectations? No question, but that doesn't mean they will repeat that, especially when so much of the team is new, and there's more talent than one might expect.
FSU will NOT play a difficult schedule in 2025.
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The 2025 season is more about FSU than its opponents. It's always been that way because they usually have a great deal more talent than their opponents, and the same will be true in 2025.
If you don't believe it, here are the win totals for each of the FBS teams FSU will play in 2025, according to FanDuel:
- Alabama-9.5 (even odds)
- Virginia-6.5 (juiced to the under)
- Miami-9.5 (juiced to the under)
- Pittsburgh-6.5 (juiced to the under)
- Stanford-3.5 (juiced to the under)
- Wake Forest-4.5 (juiced to the under)
- Clemson-9.5 (juiced to the over)
- Virginia Tech-6.5 (juiced to the under)
- NC State-6.5 (juiced to the under)
- Florida-7.5 (juiced to the under)
The over/under win total for FSU is 7.5 (juiced to the under). Just from a raw numbers point of view, only three teams on the schedule project to win more games than FSU, and all of the teams are juiced to the under of their projected win total.
Clemson is the only team projected to win more than 9.5 games. Miami always disappoints, and an opening-season loss against Notre Dame could derail that whole bunch of front runners.
FSU will have two sure wins against Kent State and East Texas A&M. On the conservative side, FSU will have more talent than Virginia, Pittsburgh, Stanford, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, and NC State.
If they win all of those games, that's eight wins, not even counting if they beat one of Miami, Florida, or Alabama. Of course, having more talent doesn't automatically mean FSU wins those games, but they'll have the advantage and should win as long as they can avoid key injuries and tons of turnovers.
Frankly, if Mike Norvell can't win eight games with this schedule, he should pack it up himself.