Grading Ashton Daniels' uncomfortably familiar Week 0 performance in FSU debut

After being outbid for a few of its top targets in the transfer portal, Florida State has spent the offseason talking itself into Ashton Daniels, an Auburn transfer who spent last season backing up Jackson Arnold and who arrived in Tallahassee with 23 career starts under his belt, taking a significant leap. 

Unsurprisingly, in Florida State’s 34-17 Week 0 win over New Mexico State at Doak Campbell Stadium on Saturday, Daniels looked like the same player he’s been his entire career, from Stanford to Auburn. A big QB with above-average physical tools who is held back by slow processing and ball-security issues. 

Should anyone have expected anything different? Probably not. He’s a C+ quarterback who played a C+ game in his FSU debut. 

Mike Norvell kept things simple for Ashton Daniels

Last season with Tommy Castellanos, FSU had one of the more efficient offenses in the country. That’s the floor a rushing QB will provide. So, theoretically, with Daniels providing some dual-threat ability, along with the ability to access the middle of the field as a passer at 6-foot-2, the offense should probably have a higher ceiling. That didn’t exactly show up in Week 0. 

The floor was there. FSU produced a 54 percent rushing success rate with Daniels carrying the ball seven times for 39 yards and a scramble touchdown. Even when he didn’t run it, the threat of Daniels as a runner forces the defense to play 11-on-11. There isn’t much dynamism, however, to his rushing.

The screen game was incredibly effective, with Daniels going 8-for-8 for 59 yards on screens.

And at times, there were glimpses of a high ceiling with Daniels hitting an early seam ball to Micahi Danzy for an explosive play and later a corner route to Duce Robinson. But there are still real limitations to his game. 

Ashton Daniels is still lacking as a dropback passer. 

Even on the throw to Danzy, it’s Robinson’s gravity as the X-receiver that holds the safety and leaves the seam open. Daniels didn’t manipulate the secondary to create the throwing lane, and with the ball placement on Danzy’s back hip, he’s forced to slow up. A better throw and this is a walk-in touchdown for one of the fastest players in college football. 

Those were two of his six attempts over 10 yards downfield. He only completed one other such attempt (along with a pass interference penalty drawn by Duce Robinson). His dropback success rate was 41% (per gameonpaper.com), which would have ranked 118th in the country last season. 

If the theory of this offense is to be heavy personnel, with a dominant rushing attack and a good screen game, plus the occasional deep shot from Daniels, it’s not a bad plan. But that only works from a positive game script. If Daniels falls behind, it’ll be trouble.

In Week 0, his average time to throw was 3.41 seconds (per PFF), which is unsustainable in the dropback game and almost impossible when a quarter of his dropbacks were screens. It’s also not an option when you go 2-for-8 under pressure with an interception while trying to throw back across your body. 

For this approach to work, Daniels has to play on time; he has to keep the offense on schedule, and he can’t waste possessions with turnovers, which killed Castellanos last year. He didn’t do any of those things in Week 1, so while there was some good, there were the same red flags that have followed him throughout his entire career.

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