FSU’s opening betting line vs. Miami is an absolute joke and it might get worse

It’s no secret that Florida State has fallen behind its in-state rivals to the south, but the sports books setting the opening line for the Seminoles’ Week 7 showdown with the Miami Hurricanes was still a painful reminder of just how significantly Mario Cristobal has pushed his advantage over Mike Norvell. 

It feels like ages since 2023 when Florida State was the undefeated ACC Champion and Miami, in Year 2 under Mario Cristobal, went just 7-6 with a 27-20 midseason loss to the Noles. Since then, Norvell has managed just seven wins, while Cristobal is 23-6 with a trip to the National Championship Game on his resume. 

2023 was the last time FSU downed Miami, and if Vegas is right, the Seminoles will be extending their losing streak as the Hurricanes opened as 16.5-point favorites in the DraftKings Sportsbook. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. 

FSU is over a two-touchdown underdog to Miami

It’s a rivalry game between two programs with rich history, but frankly, those odds may not be the most accurate representation of the separation between these two teams. There was significant fanfare ahead of last season’s matchup, even with FSU stumbling against Virginia after beating Alabama to open the year. But the Noles didn’t hold up their end of the bargain. 

While the game ultimately settled as a 28-22 Miami victory, that was a wildly misleading representation of the game. The Seminoles scored 19 unanswered points in the fourth quarter after trailing 28-3 entering the fourth quarter. Florida State never had the ball with a chance to tie the game or take the lead after the 11:25 mark of the second quarter. 

It was a dominant performance by Miami, and Vegas is expecting more of the same this time around. Lagging this far behind your primary conference in-state rival is reason enough to fire Mike Norvell, and by Week 7, it’s entirely possible that he’s already been dismissed. 

FSU has one of the toughest possible schedules in the ACC this year, facing all of the top contenders. Two of those games, plus a rematch against Alabama, occur before the Seminoles head south to Miami on October 17. So if the Noles are hurling towards missing another bowl game, Norvell could be out. There’s always potential for an interim coach bump, but with Norvell gone, the odds are likely to trend in Miami’s direction, making the Hurricanes an even larger favorite. 

That’s all speculation at this point, though. The facts are that Vegas views Miami as 16.5 points better than Florida State, and that should be unacceptable in Tallahassee. Cristobal has built a championship contender at his alma mater, while Norvell should be thankful to have his (Central Arkansas) on the schedule this year to secure one of what will likely be very few wins in 2026.

Florida State has also opened as an underdog, of varying degrees, to SMU, Alabama, Clemson, and Florida. It's shaping up to be another tough year in Tallahassee, and with Mike Norvell's massive buyout looming, Noles fans will need to take this one on the chin before a change is made.

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