Last week I wrote how FSU would likely not have a top-10 recruiting class because of four schools. Those four schools have bypassed the Noles in the national rankings, leaving FSU firmly in the No. 15 spot.
There's a sizeable gap between FSU and teams in the No. 16-20 range, and teams ranked lower than that don't have enough targets left to catch the Noles.
FSU has about three or four realistic blue-chip uncommitted options remaining on its board with 22 commits. It's unlikely they'll land all of them, but could move up to No. 13 if they land a blue-chip offensive lineman like Wilson Zierer, or blue-chip linebacker Duyon Forkpa Jr.
Blue-chip offensive lineman Da'Ron Parks is the other blue-chip offensive lineman they are in the mix with.
FSU's success on the field will ultimately determine how well they finish. A good season ensures they likely keep all or most of their current commitments. However, it could open the door for FSU to flip some players from other teams that may not have strong seasons.
I already wrote about how they're continuing to pursue Miami's blue-chip defensive end commit, Asharri Charles. Syracuse is a team FSU could take advantage of if they fail to have a solid season. They have several Florida players FSU offered or had a relationship with at some point.
I could see FSU circling back to Cam Brooks or Trenton Henderson at the defensive end position. That's one position they haven't addressed at all in the 2026 recruiting class, but can't settle for random bodies at a premium position.
If FSU landed some key targets and flipped a couple of four-star players, they'll likely land in that top 12-15 range.