Florida State's most pivotal game of the season has finally arrived as the Seminoles will be traveling to Hard Rock Stadium to face the No. 3 Miami Hurricanes. The two teams met in Tallahassee last season for an important game, and the Hurricanes ultimately took home the 28-22 win.
The Seminoles have struggled their way through a 3-3 start to get to this point, and while there have been some positive moments, the team has completely collapsed defensively multiple times. Miami boasts arguably the best offense and the best defense in the NCAA at the moment, which could spell disaster for a team that has played as inconsistently as Florida State through six games.
The early odds for the game certainly were not in favor of Florida State, with Miami originally opening as a three-touchdown favorite over the Seminoles. However, Florida State has made up some ground after seeing the odds temporarily swing even further in favor of Miami. Even with a slight shift, Florida State is still expected to be a serious underdog in Week 7.
Florida State vs. No. 3 Miami Week 7 final odds, spread, and total
Game odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook
Moneyline
- Miami -1600
- Florida State +860
Spread
- Miami -19.5 (-118)
- Florida State +19.5 (-104)
Total
- 56.5 (over -110/under -110)
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change
Final prediction for Florida State vs. No. 3 Miami
Last season delivered a very close contest between the two teams, but both programs look far different heading into the 2026 edition of the rivalry. Florida State has one notable win this season over Virginia, but otherwise, the team has failed to truly compete in all three phases against power conference opponents.
During the Week 6 loss to Louisville, the Cardinals were able to essentially abandon the pass because of how efficient their run game was. Florida State allowed the Cardinals to gain 9.2 yards per carry, and the Hurricanes currently average 6.2 yards per carry.
Much of the talk this week has been about the phenomenal quarterback Darian Mensah, and rightfully so, but this is a far more successful, dynamic, and physical run attack than Louisville's. It is hard to envision a game where Florida State does not struggle in a similar manner on the ground, especially with much of the focus being placed on stopping Mensah.
On offense, Florida State has a few key players like wide receiver Duce Robinson and running back Ousmane Kromah who could find a way to slice through the Hurricanes' defense. Aside from a few big plays and a late score, the offense will more than likely hit a wall. Miami is allowing just 5.6 yards per pass and 1.8 yards per rush.
Wake Forest is the team that has found the most success this season against Miami, and that success was due to a vicious passing attack. The Demon Deacons attempted 46 passes and ran the football just 16 times for 22 yards. Trying to beat an extremely physical defense with powerful runs and small gains is not the answer, and that could be a problem for quarterback Ashton Daniels, who tends to make mistakes with volume.
Prediction: FSU 10, Miami 45
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