Anyone who has bet on sports with any consistency sees betting lines each week that look too good to be true. The old adage, if it’s too good to be true, it usually is, almost always plays out.
That could be the case with the Florida State and Wake Forest betting line this week. FSU fans(and the nation) have watched FSU look worse and worse each progressive week. They went on the road and lost to Stanford last week as double-digit betting favorites.
Wake Forest should have given Georgia Tech its lone loss this season, but the ACC refs screwed them. Wake Forest ended SMU’s 20-game ACC winning streak on Saturday with a walk-off field goal that was good by a few inches. So, why is FSU a betting favorite against Wake Forest if they’ve looked so bad over the past few weeks?
Injuries and penalties have been the biggest issue for the FSU offense lately. They had a bye week, and many of those players dealing with nagging injuries have had a chance to recover. It’s unclear if Thomas Castellanos will play yet, but we should get clarity this week. FSU should have scored 30 points against Stanford. They had a touchdown called back with a penalty, and the referees took the other one away. If FSU plays cleaner, they cover the spread against Stanford fairly easily.
FSU had two more drives that were turnover on downs, one was in the red zone. Wake Forest isn’t some offensive juggernaut, but the same could be said for Stanford. Wake Forest only averages 26.7 points per game. Their quarterbacks are not accurate passers and they only convert third downs 36 percent.
They don't have an unstoppable running game. This is the same team that nearly lost to Kennesaw State in the season opener. Granted, FSU hasn’t shown any semblance of dawg on a consistent basis since who knows when. The defensive coaches are getting outcoached because the same issues show up every week.
However, IF FSU plays clean and eliminates the dumb penalties, there’s a chance they roll Wake Forest. That’s the case in nearly every game for FSU, and every loss has been one a touchdown or less. It's also a road game for Wake Forest at night. We’re not saying FSU will win the game, but it’s likely why they are favored, because it’s about how the two teams match up.
The betting line seems like a no-brainer that Wake Forest will cover that spread, but Vegas isn't in the business of giving away money.