FSU football always feels like the trendy pick for analysts when they try to predict a team getting upset.
This week is no different, as Kirk Herbstreit threw his two cents in regarding the FSU vs. Wake Forest matchup early this week when he appeared on a college football playoff panel:
“I just think Florida State, going to Wake. It’s always sleepy at Wake, and Wake has a good team, well coached, and if you don’t show up with the right attitude, you’re going to be in the fourth quarter looking up, and it’s a three-point game,” Herbstreit said. “It has that kind of feel this week for Florida State.”
He’s right that it’s a sleepy noon kickoff, and it’s true that FSU didn’t play well when they traveled to Boston College earlier this season for a noon game. That was their first-noon game all season, and they’ve had several since.
Wake Forest has beaten the Noles the last three times they matched up, and FSU beat themselves last year in the matchup. However, these two programs are going in different directions, and Wake Forest isn’t good this year. They got extremely lucky to beat a terrible Pittsburgh team last week.
I understand crazy things have happened in the ACC this year. We can go back to last week when North Carolina lost against Virginia. The difference is since FSU has turned things around, they haven’t lost games like this as large betting favorites.
Yes, they almost lost to Boston College, but the context gets lost. Half of the team had the flu, and it took a fumble recovery for a touchdown and a botched kickoff return to get Boston College back into the game after getting down 31-10.
FSU was also playing without a few starters in that game, particularly Akeem Dent, which directly cost the FSU defense. I’m sure Wake Forest will try to slow the game down and run the ball while playing defense to try and avoid explosive plays.
However, short of FSU turning the ball over multiple times and Wake Forest finding some offense they haven’t shown all year? FSU getting upset on Saturday isn’t going to happen. Wake Forest isn’t a good team.