FSU football: A glance at Wake Forest by the numbers

FSU football will look to continue its winning ways when they travel to face the Wake Forest Demon Deacons on Saturday at noon ET. The Noles enter the contest as -20 point betting favorites, with a points total of 51.5. Those odds imply a 35-15 win for the Noles.

The Demon Deacons are coming off a 21-17 come from behind win against the Pittsburgh Panthers. A game Pittsburgh should have won had their QB not get ruled down for beginning his slide too early while running for a first down to put the game away.

Wake Forest had lost three straight to Georgia Tech, Clemson, and Virginia Tech before that game.

Here’s how they stack up by the numbers:

• 23.1 ppg
• 22.1 ppg allowed
• 5.08 ypp
• 5.56 ypp allowed
• 3.52 ypc
• 3.89 ypc allowed
• 37.37 percent third downs converted
• 34.29 percent third downs converted allowed

-Offensive FEI(opponent adjusted with garbage time removed): No. 84 nationally

-Defensive FEI (opponent adjusted with garbage time removed): No. 49 nationally

Thoughts

I said we’d learn a lot about Dave Clawson as a coach this year since he lost most of the COVID super seniors and a quarterback in his program since 2018, Sam Hartman. My assumption is Wake Forest would face a steep drop-off when I had Wake Forest as my No. 2 most overrated team on the 2023 FSU schedule in the preseason:

"This season will tell you how good or lucky he is. Listen, winning at Wake Forest is extremely hard, but Clawson also took advantage of some things that will no longer help him. FSU isn’t playing around anymore for starters, and the advantage of having guys on the team for half a decade is no more.The defense last year wasn’t good, and they’ll have a new QB under center. They also play Clemson and Pittsburgh before FSU this year. There’s a good chance the lack of talent and depth will have gotten to them by then."

The steepest decline has been at quarterback, and Wake Forest has turned the ball over multiple times in their last three losses, while playing three different quarterbacks.

Starting QB Mitch Griffis could return, but his numbers are dreadful this season. Some of it due to an offensive line that’s allowed 31 sacks and 61 tackles for a loss. They also lost two skill players to injury before the season they planned to count on.

Defensively, they are not terrible, and actually better than they were last year according to advanced metrics. They just don’t have the continuity and depth from the past couple of years and it’s showing like typical Wake Forest.