The fortunes for FSU football changed drastically since a year ago. The roster, along with the expectations, are much different.
A successful season last year was winning eight games, and a successful season this year has to be at least making the ACC Championship game.
Personally, I would be disappointed if we lost to Clemson twice(if that scenario plays out) based on what FSU brings back and the changes going on in that program.
I predicted last year’s schedule wouldn’t be as tough as most thought, and I don’t see this year as any different. Aside from the LSU and Clemson games, FSU should be betting favorites in the others.
This FSU team is the most talented unit Mike Norvell will have had as a head coach, and I expect them to dominate most of the teams on the schedule.
FSU’s performance against LSU in game one will likely set expectations for the rest of the season. Picking this year’s most overrated teams feels more challenging than the last few years.
I was spot on with my 2021 predictions here, and my 2022 predictions here. There are no divisions in the ACC this year, so that changes some of the usual teams on the schedule. Then the expectations for most of the teams haven’t been outlandish like in years past.
Miami and Florida sucked under new head coaches, as predicted last year. However, there are a few trending picks that some FSU media have pointed out they believe could give FSU a tough game in 2023. I guess I’ll use that as a gauge to make these predictions.
Here are my three most overrated teams on the 2023 FSU football schedule.
Pittsburgh Panthers
FSU hasn’t played the Pittsburgh Panthers since the 2020 COVID season, which saw the Panthers run through a terrible FSU team that had a true freshman QB playing for much of the game after Jordan Travis got hurt.
The Panthers finished the 2022 season 9-4, with a 37-35 win over UCLA in the Sun Bowl. Pittsburgh will have a new quarterback, Boston College’s Phil Jurkovec, who FSU fans should be familiar with. He’ll reunite with his former offensive coordinator at BC, Frank Cignetti Jr..
Pitt lost their best running back, but returns three offensive line starters and their top two receivers and tight end. Pitts defense is usually what gives most folks pause when wondering if they will pose a viable threat to FSU.
However, they lost six starters and ACC Defensive Player of the Year, Calijah Kancey. They return both starting linebackers and some guys in the secondary.
The defense ranked No. 22 in advanced metrics last season, with a dominant rushing defense and guys that could get after the QB.
Even with that, the passing defense wasn’t great, and I expect that unit to take a step back in 2023.
I’ve said for the past two years, Jurkovec doesn’t scare me, and I don’t think he’s as good as some like to project. I know this game is on the road, but this game doesn’t scare me.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
I don’t know if I have Wake Forest here because I believe they’re overrated or because I want to beat them by a gazillion points with how their fans have been yapping during this conference re-alignment talk.
Wake Forest lost QB Sam Hartman to the transfer portal(he went to Notre Dame), and they lost several of their COVID super seniors. They also lost one of their top wide receivers to an injury a few days ago.
I know a lot of folks think a lot of Dave Clawson as a head coach, and I ranked him No. 2 in my ACC Coaches Ranking weeks back.
This season will tell you how good or lucky he is. Listen, winning at Wake Forest is extremely hard, but Clawson also took advantage of some things that will no longer help him. FSU isn’t playing around anymore for starters, and the advantage of having guys on the team for half a decade is no more.
The defense last year wasn’t good, and they’ll have a new QB under center. They also play Clemson and Pittsburgh before FSU this year. There’s a good chance the lack of talent and depth will have gotten to them by then.
The FSU game probably gets ugly for them like in years past for a change.
Duke Blue Devils
I have to give Mike Elko credit in his first season at Duke. He won nine games, and that has caught the eye of many folks going into year two.
Duke returns 17 starters, including the underrated QB Riley Leonard. What most folks don’t realize? Duke beat up on a bunch of bad teams in 2022. They only beat two teams with winning records last year, and had unbelievable turnover luck.
They were No. 2 nationally in turnover margin, recovering 16 fumbles and hauling in 10 interceptions.
Mike Elko is known for great defenses, but those numbers are not sustainable. The good news is we’ll get to see how good Duke is when they open the season against Clemson. It’ll also provide an idea of what to expect from Clemson.
The game is in Durham, and Clemson is a -13 point betting favorite if that tells you anything. They don’t have the talent or depth FSU has this year, nor do I expect Duke to win nine games again in 2023.
They might go 6-6 at best.
Final Thoughts
There were a couple of other teams I could have put on this list, but I get tired of putting Miami and Florida on here every year and being right.
I almost put Clemson on this list because they will have a young QB, new offensive coordinator, and I’m not sold on their defensive coaches.
However, aside from FSU and Notre Dame, they don’t play anyone that should give them much trouble and should improve as the season progresses. LSU will likely be the most talented team FSU will face, and I expect them to be a good team in Brian Kelly’s second year.
Everyone else on the schedule I’m not too concerned about. Miami is a dumpster fire with new coaches on both sides.
Mario Cristobal is a terrible in-game coach, but they have a cupcake schedule and will still have about three losses before rolling into Tallahassee.
Billy Napier doesn’t have a QB, and they have a new defensive coordinator, while playing one of the toughest schedules nationally. That Florida team will struggle to make a bowl game again in 2023.