FSU football has benefitted and been a victim of media bias over the years. In recent years they have become an afterthought to the national media, receiving ONE vote in the coaches poll released earlier this week.
However, among ACC coaches FSU placed fourth in the preseason ACC Atlantic Division rankings. The Noles have done themselves no favors the past few years playing ridiculously tough schedules while not getting rewarded.
Last year’s schedule was tough, but I’m not sure it was as tough as most thought. I feel the same way about the 2022 schedule, plus there are only a few teams with more overall talent than the Noles in 2022.
Mike Norvell has been pleased with the team’s progress from spring to fall, and this 2022 team appears farther along than last year’s team and with better depth overall.
FSU’s performance against LSU in game two will tell us about this program. Will they do enough to reach the pivotal eight-win mark?
That has to be the expectation with so much experience returning and some key acquisitions from the transfer portal.
I don’t understand how some teams receive so much hype from the media. I was spot on with my 2021 predictions if you want to check those out here.
Here are my three most overrated teams on the 2022 FSU football schedule.
Florida Gators
Florida finished their season (6-7), defeating FSU at home in the season finale by a field goal. It’s a game FSU arguably wins if Jordan Travis doesn’t have to miss over a quarter of the game and Ontaria Wilson doesn’t muff a punt that leads to a Florida touchdown.
Florida had the No. 58 offense and No. 24 defense, according to FEI advanced metrics. They return Anthony Richardson at QB, who shared duties last season.
However, only 13 of the 51 touchdowns they scored last season return in 2022. They enter the season receiving 17 votes in the preseason rankings.
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They have a slight edge in talent according to the team composite ranking, but they have a new coaching staff that’s largely unproven.
They also have a lot of questions on defense. I have a hard time wrapping my head around how they rank nearly 20 spots higher than FSU in the preseason coaches poll.
They did play Alabama and a few other teams tough before firing Dan Mullen during the season. However, we saw that team get progressively worse as the season progressed.
Four of their six wins came against teams with losing records. I’m not sold on Billy Napier as that much of a difference-maker in year one.
NC State Wolfpack
NC State defeated a flu-ridden FSU football team without their starting quarterback last season and finished 9-3. It was a life and death battle that saw the FSU defense keep a rudderless FSU offense in a one-score game until early in the fourth quarter.
FSU was 2-16 on third downs and had nothing offensively with McKenzie Milton at QB. NC State returns nearly 80 percent of their offensive production and a lot of experience from their defense that finished No. 12, according to FEI advanced metrics.
Their offense finished No. 54 via the same metric, and they enter the preseason ranked No. 13. Here’s who they defeated last season:
-South Florida (2 wins)
-Furman (FCS)
-Louisiana Tech (Non-Power 5)
-Boston College (6 wins)
-Clemson(in OT) (10 wins)
-Louisville (6 wins)
-FSU (5 wins)
-Syracuse (4 wins)
-North Carolina (6 wins)
What good teams did they beat? Clemson? The Tigers got carried to 10-wins because their defense was elite, but offensively they were awful.
The Wolfpack played Boston College when starting QB Phil Jurkovec was out with an injury. They went life and death with FSU, and North Carolina gave them the game in the final few minutes after being up two possessions.
They return a lot offensively, but their offense has never been anything special, and collectively, FSU has more talent according to team composite rankings. I’m not saying FSU wins, but that game shouldn’t be penciled as an automatic win for the Wolfpack, even if it is at Carter-Finley Stadium.
Miami Hurricanes
Miami made the list last year, and I was right once again. The Canes finished the season (7-5), including the epic 4th and 14 game loss against FSU.
Miami once again lived off defeating some sub-par teams. Here’s a list of teams they beat:
-Appalachian State(Non-Power 5, nearly lost the game)
-Central Connecticut (FCS)
-NC State (9 wins, one-point win)
-Pittsburgh(11 wins and Miami won by four)
-Georgia Tech (3 wins, 3-point win)
-Virginia Tech (6 wins)
-Duke (3 wins)
It’s not like they were close to elite, and they were lucky Tyler Van Dyke turned out to be as good as he was out of nowhere. Miami’s offense ranked No. 50, and their defense ranked No. 51 according to FEI advanced metrics. They actually finished lower than FSU football in the FEI overall rankings.
The latest preseason ranking from ESPN has the Canes at No. 17. That ranking is way too high for a program that played a bunch of mediocre programs and easily could have finished below .500.
They lost their two best receivers and have question marks at defensive end and at linebacker. Teams have film of Tyler Van Dyke to study and he’s learning a new offense. What changed other than they hired a coach that’s barely .500 in his career?
They benefit from another cupcake schedule, but we’ll see if they are for real when they play Texas A&M in week three. However, that Aggie team is likely ranked higher than the should be to begin the season.
Final Thoughts
There were a couple of other teams I could have put on this list, but these three are the ones that stand out the most, with pundits picking them to do well in 2022.
Wake Forest could have gone on here, but they lost starting QB Sam Hartman indefinitely and their defense will be terrible again.
Louisville ranks near where FSU is in the coaches poll, but FSU has more talent overall according to team composite rankings.
I probably could have put LSU on the list, but I don’t think expectations for Brian Kelly are through the roof in year one after what that program experienced last season.
They have more talent overall than FSU too. I think Clemson likely rebounds a bit offensively overall despite the new offensive coordinator, and their defense should be very good again.
FSU could win 1-2 of these three games on the list or go 0-3, but I expect them to be competitive in all of them, and that’s saying something considering the hype for these teams, especially NC State and Miami.