FSU football: Why ESPN’s FPI is off for 2023 Noles

FSU football finished the 2022 season with 10 wins and ranked No. 11 nationally in the final AP Poll.

However, that was before several key players like Jordan Travis, Trey Benson, Jared Verse, Johnny Wilson, Tatum Bethune, Kalen DeLoach, Akeem Dent, and Fabien Lovett decided to return for the 2023 season.

That’s an insane amount of production and a ton of experience on both sides of the ball. So I found it peculiar ESPN’s FPI metric has the Noles at No. 14 in the updated rankings. It also projects the Noles win essentially go 9-3.

I suppose it’s projecting losses to LSU, and Clemson, and losing to someone else on the schedule. The metric gives FSU a 17 percent chance of winning the conference and a 4.4 percent chance to make the College Football Playoff.

Ironically, the metric has LSU at No. 4 when they finished with a No. 16 ranking in the final 2022 AP Poll. Plus, FSU beat LSU head-to-head last year on their home turf. LSU also has a tougher schedule according to the metric than FSU.

Now, the metric doesn’t know the ACC is going to no divisions this year, which means FSU could lose to Clemson the in the first game and potentially rematch them in the ACC Championship Game.

Talent-wise, LSU might have more overall talent, but is there that much of a gap between the two teams?

I don’t think so. Are there 14 teams with a better QB than Jordan Travis? Nope. Are 14 teams returning as much production on both sides of the ball? Nope.

The good thing is FSU will play LSU in game one as they did last year, and we’ll find out what’s up. They’ll also play Clemson in game four.

We’ll know in the first quarter of the season how right or wrong these metrics are. I think FSU should be inside the top 10.