FSU football: Improved QB play can be a game changer in 2022

On paper, FSU football has one of the tougher schedules in the 2022 season. However, I think that’s more about program perception than anything else.

If we knew FSU would avoid injuries at QB, I think most would feel comfortable saying FSU football will win 7-8 games in 2022. They had a chance to do it last year with an 0-4 start to the season.

I’ve written about the quality of offenses and defenses the Noles will play against in 2022. I have fewer question marks about the FSU defense, which means it’ll fall on the FSU offense to deliver the goods and surprise some people.

We saw noticeable improvements in the offense once the coaching staff stopped playing musical chairs with Jordan Travis and McKenzie Milton last season. Once Travis established himself as the best option, and it was clear Milton wasn’t capable of recapturing his UCF magic?

We saw glimpses of what’s possible against average to below-average defenses like UNC and the first half against Boston College.

The good news is only Clemson and NC State are the only teams that will likely feature top 20 defenses this year.

Travis did a great job of avoiding turnovers most of the year and made things happen behind a banged-up offensive line and limited talent at wide receiver. However, he left a lot of plays on the field too.

Here’s how improved quarterback play can be a game-changer for FSU football in 2022.

Real Proof

Games are won and lost in the trenches, but good quarterback play can hide some issues with the trenches, with good decision making and checking into the right calls. The offensive line in 2021 was better than it was in 2020.

The good news is that FSU may have fixed the trenches via continued additions from the transfer portal.

The Noles only won three games in 2020, largely because of Jordan Travis and his ability to create something out of nothing. It’s no coincidence we saw an improved offensive line, an improved Jordan Travis, and more wins and competitive games for the Noles in 2021.

Jordan Travis completed a higher percentage of passes, more touchdowns, a higher QB rating, and turned the ball over fewer times while running slightly less. Travis ran the ball 43% of the time in 2020 compared to 41 percent in 2021.

The key for Travis will be improving that completion percentage, keeping turnovers low, and helping improve the offense third down conversion percentage, which settled at 34.87 percent.

FSU scored touchdowns 74 percent (No. 6 nationally) of the time once they got into the red zone. The problem was they only had 42 red zone opportunities(No. 91 nationally).

The offense has to sustain drives, and that’s completing the easy throws on first and second down and avoiding taking sacks and negative plays.

Parting Thoughts

FSU football has more talent on their roster than most of the teams they’ll face this season.
Yet, the expectation is the Noles will win between 6-7 games among oddsmakers. One reason that’s the expectation is the question mark at the quarterback position.

If you told oddsmakers you’d get Jordan Travis for 12 games? They’d likely increase FSU’s win total to 7.5 wins.

If we knew Jordan Travis would throw for 2,500 yards and rush for another 500 yards coupled with the defense ranking top 30?

There are likely five games where I’d put FSU at a 65% chance of winning or higher. There are likely four more toss-up games. Good QB play is the difference between going 1-3, 2-2, 3-1, or 4-0 in those games.

We’ve seen it too many times. If Dabo Swinney starts Deshaun Watson against FSU in 2014(with Jameis Winston suspended), Clemson wins that game. Jordan Travis plays the entire game against Jacksonville State in 2021? FSU wins that game.

Jordan Travis throwing three interceptions in the opener against Notre Dame, which resulted in 21 points allowed, is a huge reason the Noles lost that game.

However, improved QB play for the Noles is likely the difference in winning 8+ games or not. FSU football winning 8+ games in 2022 would be a game-changer.