I analyzed the offenses FSU football will face and concluded the offenses they will face may not be as good as I initially thought.
While several opposing teams return starting quarterbacks, other variables and question marks could give the FSU defense an advantage.
I believe the defense will be a team strength, but there’s no reason why the FSU offense shouldn’t take a sizable leap forward as long as Jordan Travis remains healthy in 2022.
Travis missed the equivalent of 3+ games last year, and FSU faced several defenses that ranked in the top 25, according to FootballOutsiders.
Despite those obstacles, OL injuries, and a lack of talent at WR, FSU averaged 27.6 ppg, 5.79 ypp, and 4.78 yards per rush.
The points averaged per game surpassed 30 when Jordan Travis was the starter, and he put up some impressive numbers over the final three games in 2021.
FSU coaches addressed some depth issues and talent deficiencies with additions to the offensive line,running back, and the wide receiver room from the transfer portal.
How effective can the offense be in 2022? It’ll depend on the defenses they face, so here’s a look at where teams on the scheduled finished in 2021 according to advanced metrics from FootballOutsiders.
Opposing Defenses in 2021
FSU football checked in with the No. 52 defense, which includes the first four games where they struggled to get stops. They were better than that over the final eight games.
Here’s where each FBS team on the schedule finished last season according to Football Outsiders advanced metrics DDE. That stands for Defensive Drive Efficiency (scoring value gained or lost per opponent offensive drive):
LSU: No. 85
Louisville: No. 93
Boston College: No. 54
Wake Forest: No. 68
NC State: No. 18
Clemson: No. 3
Georgia Tech: No. 116
Miami: No. 83
Syracuse: No. 74
Louisiana: No. 21
Florida: No. 42
That’s one top-five defense and two more in the top 25.
Parting Thoughts
Just looking at the schedule it would be easy to assume more of these teams would have better defenses.
As I mentioned when talking about the offenses, teams can improve drastically with talent acquired from the transfer portal.
Clemson returns a lot of talent but lost arguably the best defensive coordinator in the nation. NC State returns a lot of production, but Lousiana lost a lot from their team, and their coach Billy Napier took the job at Florida.
When I look at these teams, FSU has more talent and experience on defense than at least seven teams on their schedule. If the Noles produce a top 30 defense or better, I think that’ll be more than enough to secure at least 7 or 8 wins in 2022.
FSU football needs to have their offense and defense in sync. They can’t afford for the offense to be inefficient or stall like the first few games in 2021.
If these opposing defenses don’t make significant jumps in 2022? I think the FSU offense can do some damage as long as they can stay healthy at QB.