The FSU football defense improved substantially from 2020 to 2021. The additions of Keir Thomas, Jermaine Johnson, and Jammie Robinson from the transfer portal were a huge part of that success.
The Noles lost Thomas and Johnson, but Robinson returns along with some new additions from the portal and the development of other players on the roster.
I keep saying it, but Adam Fuller returns a lot of leadership and experience at all three levels of the defense, and there’s better depth.
That should bode well for the FSU defense looking to crack the top 25 for the first time since the 2017 season. I expect the defense to be a strength, and most of the teams on the schedule have experienced quarterbacks returning.
That’s usually a solid recipe for success in most cases. Teams can improve a lot year-to-year with the transfer portal and other variables. However, FSU’s opponents didn’t exactly light it up last season.
Here’s where each FBS team on the schedule finished last season according to Football Outsiders advanced metrics ODE. That stands for Offensive Drive Efficiency (scoring value gained or lost per offensive drive):
- LSU: No. 80
- Louisville: No. 34
- Boston College: No. 93
- Wake Forest: No. 11
- NC State: No. 60
- Clemson: No. 102
- Georgia Tech: No. 89
- Miami: No. 51
- Syracuse: No. 83
- Louisiana: No. 25
- Florida: No. 67
FSU had the No. 66 offense according to that stat last year, which includes the games where Jordan Travis wasn’t available. FSU will only face two teams, who had top 25 offenses last year, but let me add some context to that statement.
Teams At A Glance
FSU played against every quarterback they’ll face this year except whoever LSU and Louisiana trot out there.
LSU will have a new QB and a top WR target in Kayshon Boutte. However, they have questions on the offensive line and at tight end.
Louisville lost their top two wide receivers but added two from the portal. They will also return most of their offensive line.
Boston College lost a lot from their offensive line, though FSU beat Phil Jurkovec like a drum last year. They return their top wide receiver.
Wake Forest returns most of their production from last season and will likely be a top offense again.
NC State lost their left tackle to the NFL but return experience on the offensive line and their top two receivers. The Wolfpack has question marks at running back.
Clemson was awful offensively, and there’s no way they can be that terrible again, right? Clemson has good options at running back and some talented but unproven wide receivers. They return most of their offensive line in 2022 and have a new offensive coordinator.
FSU faced Jeff Sims from Georgia Tech in 2020. I should note Clemson QB Taisun Phommachanh and Akron’s Zach Gibson transferred to GT and will compete for that job. The Yellow Jackets lost their top running back and second-leading receiver to the portal. They will also have a new offensive coordinator and new faces on the OL.
FSU beat Miami’s Tyler Van Dyke in his sixth career start, and they lost their top two wide receivers. They have to replace two starters on the offensive line and have a new offensive coordinator.
Syracuse was one-dimensional last year and couldn’t pass the ball, and looks to be more of the same in 2022.
Louisiana lost a lot from their team when Billy Napier took the head coaching job at Florida.
Florida returns QB Anthony Richardson, who played at times last season but has a lot of question marks at WR, OL, and tight end.
Parting Thoughts
Just looking at the schedule and hearing the number of QBs returning can make things seem daunting, but outside of Wake Forest and NC State, most of these teams have lots of question marks.
FSU catches LSU in their first game of the season, and Boston College will have virtually a new offensive line. NC State returns a lot, but their offense isn’t explosive, and FSU limited them last year. Clemson has question marks, GT wasn’t good last year, and Miami has question marks outside of Van Dyke.
Syracuse was terrible, and Louisiana lost most of what they had last year when Napier left. Florida has a lot of question marks and will have a new coaching staff. I’m not saying FSU won’t face some good offenses in 2022, but I don’t think the slate is as daunting as some folks think.
I think a few of these teams will put up some points, especially as the season progresses and coaches figure out their personnel. However, FSU’s defense returns a lot and has already faced most of these quarterbacks before, which should be helpful.
I think it’ll be much like last year with FSU football. If the offense can score points, the defense will be good enough to beat many of these teams.