Only one win separates the Noles from Virginia Tech through the first nine games, yet Florida State is a massive favorite over the Hokies in their matchup on Saturday night. Florida State fans don’t have faith in their team because of the lack of consistency from week to week.
FSU lost to lowly Stanford on the road and blew out Wake Forest at home two weeks later. FSU enters the matchup as nearly two-touchdown betting favorites. Oddsmakers have the Noles as -13.5 betting favorites, with the over/under points total at 54.5.
Those odds imply a 34-20 win for Florida State. Here are a few reasons FSU is a large betting favorite.
- FSU is better at home than on the road
- FSU is much better via advanced metrics
- FSU has more overall talent
- Stylistically, the matchup favors FSU
All four FSU wins have come at home inside Doak Campbell Stadium. FSU ranks No. 28 via advanced metrics, and Virginia Tech ranks No. 76. FSU has the No. 24 offense and No. 45 defense. Virginia Tech has the No. 61 offense and No. 82 defense.
Although it hasn’t been to the FSU standard, FSU has recruited much better overall over the past few years than Virginia Tech. Virginia Tech has had an interim coach since early in the season and will have several players out.
Virginia Tech struggles to find success through the air, which favors FSU. Defensively, they struggle, and FSU should score 30+ points as long as they don’t get in their own way. That’s no guarantee with this FSU team! However, they tend to play much better at home, so this game could look similar to the Wake Forest game, close early, with FSU pulling away.