No. 2 Virginia
Let's go with the narrative that FSU kept it respectable and lost against Alabama something like 34-24 after keeping it close through three quarters.
FSU should win the next two games and enter the road game against Virginia at 2-1, with the chance to go into the Miami game with a 3-1 record.
This thought is mindblowing, but they would have already surpassed last year's win total in only four games. A win against Virginia guarantees they get through the first half of the season at 3-3 at worst, with several winnable games on the back half of the schedule.
However, a loss against Virginia means the Noles could finish the first half of the schedule with losses against Miami and Pittsburgh and finish 2-4.
A loss against Virginia likely undoes any goodwill brought on by a respectable performance against Alabama. The Cavaliers are probably better than last year, but they were not a bowl team last season. It's a must-win game for FSU and Mike Norvell.