The thoughts surrounding the Alabama vs. FSU game to open the 2025 season are all over the place. The oddsmakers have Alabama near a two-touchdown betting favorite. One Alabama writer thinks the game is a lock for Alabama to win.
However, ESPN's Rece Davis gave an interesting take on the ESPN College GameDay Podcast (37 minute mark below):
“Florida State is going to be so much more improved,” Davis said. “Because they will threaten Alabama, it’s going to be — instead of Florida State being improved — is this really working at Alabama?” Davis said.
My Thoughts
I tend to believe this narrative from Davis. FSU was a terrible team last year, but it wasn't because of a lack of talent. The majority of the players responsible for the issues on that team are no longer on the roster. FSU brought in some talented players from the transfer portal, and two proven coordinators who have played against elite teams.
I don't think Alabama will be an elite team, at least not in game one, because they have several question marks, especially at quarterback. They also have a new offensive coordinator, and the game will be on the road. I expect Alabama's defense to be good, but weird things happen in season openers. Also, Alabama is the most talented team on paper, but I don't think the gap will be as wide as some think.
The key to this game will be who makes the fewest mistakes. I expect the game to be close or competitive through, say, the third quarter at least.
If that's the case and because FSU was so terrible last year, that's the point Rece Davis is making against Kalen DeBoer. Plus, Alabama lost two games last year when they were bigger betting favorites than they will be against FSU. I keep saying I don't expect the Noles to win, but I think they will surpass the low expectations everyone has for them in week one.