FSU football: Why isn't Clemson a larger betting favorite over Noles?

FSU football dropped to 1-4 after a blowout loss against SMU last week. The Noles have been in every game this season, but turnovers cost the Noles against Boston College, Memphis, and SMU. FSU is among the national leaders in points allowed due to turnovers. Here are where past opponents rank nationally according to FEI:

• Georgia Tech: No. 60 overall, No. 26 offense, No. 98 defense, No. 102 special teams
• Boston College: No. 64 overall, No. 45 offense, No. 61 defense, No. 114 special teams
• Memphis: No. 26 overall, No. 24 offense, No. 84 defense, No. 54 special teams
• California: No. 44 overall, No. 67 offense, No. 31 defense, No. 74 special teams
• SMU: No. 24 overall, No. 39 offense, No. 22 defense, No. 12 special teams

FSU was betting favorites against all those teams except SMU last week, where they entered the game as +6.5 betting underdogs in their first true road game. The Noles will welcome the Clemson Tigers to Tallahassee on Saturday night, and the Tigers will be the best team FSU has faced by FAR. Here's where Clemson ranks according to FEI:

• Clemson: No. 9 overall, No. 11 offense, No. 9 defense, No. 70 special teams

Ironically, Clemson is only a -14.5 betting favorite, with the news DJ Uiagalelei is out with a finger injury, and redshirt freshman Brock Glenn will make his third career start. The over/under total is 48

FSU ranks No. 61 overall, No. 84 on offense, No. 47 on defense, and No. 1 on special teams. Those odds imply a 31-17 Clemson win. The only problem is that FSU hasn't scored more than 14 points since the season opener against Georgia Tech, whose defense is the worst they've faced.

Do we trust Brock Glenn to lead FSU to 17+ points against the best defense they've faced? Can we trust him to avoid turnovers? Defensively, Cade Klubnik can run, but he's not a quarterback that Clemson will run to a ton unless it's in the red zone. He averages four carries per game.

That benefits FSU, as they perform better against pocket passers. Klubnik has a history of turning it over but has cleaned that up so far in 2024. That aspect will give the FSU defense a chance to keep the offense within striking range like they've done in the first half of all the other games.

Brock Glenn does bring an aspect to the game that DJ Uiagalelei doesn't in the running game. I wouldn't be surprised to see Mike Norvell use some wild cat like he did with Glenn in the game last year.

So, some variables that could make things interesting for a while. It's a road game, so that's a factor, but I don't expect the crowd to be overly enthused after a 1-4 start.

We know Dabo Swinney smells blood in the water and will look to make a statement after losing to the Noles at home in overtime last year. I'm surprised the betting line isn't more, so it'll be interesting to see where this line finishes by game time on Saturday night.