FSU football: FEI advanced metric projections way too low on 2024 Noles

I have a love/hate relationship with advanced metrics like FEI and SP+. They do a great job providing in-depth information once you have some real game data to use. However, the formulas used to produce preseason projections need work. FEI tends to be more accurate than SP+ for my money, but I have disagreed with their FSU projections over the last two years. They have undersold FSU in 2022 and 2023 because they haven't figured out how to account for FSU's use of acquiring talent and production from the transfer portal. Here's what I wrote last year:

"When I saw in the preseason projections at No. 22 overall, No. 17 offensively, and No. 33 defensively, I scratched my head. However, I know the numbers would work themselves out as more actual game data becomes available."

FSU finished No. 6 nationally in the major polls(and likely would have been higher if Jordan Travis hadn't gotten hurt.) FEI had FSU at No. 15 overall, No. 27 offensively, and No. 10 defensively at the end of the year. The FSU offense ranked much higher before the Jordan Travis injury, so my thoughts on their preseason rankings were spot on.

FEI projections

The 2024 preseason FEI projections have the Noles at No. 19 overall(they rank No. 10 in the AP/Coaches Poll). FEI projects FSU to have the No. 29 offense and No. 13 defense. FEI projects FSU to win 8.4 games, which is much lower than oddsmakers suggest at 9.5.

There are not 18 teams better than FSU. I agree the FSU defense will likely be anywhere from No. 8-15 or so. However, putting the FSU offense at No. 29 is atrocious. The Oregon State team DJ Uiagalelei led last season finished with the No. 11 offense. FSU has arguably a top 15 offensive line nationally and one of the deepest stable of running backs. They have talent at wide receiver and tight end, and Mike Norvell's offenses average over 30 points per game in his sleep. The offense will look similar to the 2022 offense, which finished with the No. 7 offense via FEI that year. Just like last year, write it down, because FSU is better than these projections.