There’s one thing every college football fanbase has in common: hope. No matter how dark it looks in the offseason, by the time Week 1, or in this case Week 0, comes around, fans find a way to talk themselves into this season being better than the last.
Yet, the supply of hope has been running low in Tallahassee. After back-to-back losing seasons and four in the six years under Mike Norvell, sentiment among much of the Seminoles faithful has ranged from furious to apathetic this offseason. And many of those who did have hope before Saturday night felt it quickly dwindle as they watched an uninspiring 34-17 Florida State win over New Mexico State at Doak Campbell Stadium.
The Seminoles are 1-0, and in some ways, that’s all that matters. In others, though, if FSU submits a similar performance against its next two opponents- SMU in Week 1 or Alabama in Week 3- then the end of the Mike Norvell era could come before October.
Florida State has a lot of issues to iron out after Week 0
This was a New Mexico State team that won three games under Tony Sanchez two years ago and improved to 4-8 in 2025. This isn’t a Group of Six College Football Playoff contender or even a team that looks like a threat to win Conference USA.
That was a middling G6 team, and its wide receiver TK King had held onto a sure touchdown on a trick play in the third quarter; there’s no guarantee Florida State even wins this game. Even with that three-point swing, Florida State couldn’t put New Mexico State away.
The rebuilt offensive line with five new starters was allowing pressure on new starting QB Ashton Daniels all night. Daniels reignited concerns about his lack of ball security with an ugly interception. Ultimately, the offense was relatively efficient, but Daniels held onto the ball too long, didn’t show much as a downfield thrower, and red-zone play-calling failed to answer lingering questions from last season.
On the other side of the ball, defensive coordinator Tony White hasn’t resolved any of the communication issues in the secondary from last season. His best player, Ja’Bril Rawls, had a brutal night, including giving up a deep touchdown and being flagged for a terrible unnecessary roughness penalty. Plus, the defensive line, which Florida State players and coaches raved about all preseason, did very little to disrupt New Mexico State QB Trey Hedden.
That’s a defensive line that, in an offseason when the budget was tight, was expensive. Both the Desir twins, Darryll and Mandrell, entered the portal before returning for a significant payday. Neither sophomore looked particularly worth the money on Saturday night.
White’s simplistic spot-drop zone coverage allows far too many easy incompletions underneath, and the revolving door in the secondary, playing more than a few defensive backs, led to coverage busts. New Mexico State threw for 272 yards and went 10-17 on third down.
Hedden made the Seminoles pay for it some, but SMU’s Kevin Jennings and former five-star Keelon Russell, in his first year starting at Alabama, might run them off the field.
If FSU looks bad in losses to SMU and Alabama, what’s the point of keeping Norvell?
This could have been a shaky performance in Week 0 and not a proper reflection of what this team is going to be. That’s possible, but for a program with a head coach who has gone 7-17 in the last two seasons, it doesn’t feel like an aberration.
So what if it’s not? There’s almost no way a team that looks like this can beat No. 19 SMU or No. 13 Alabama. And if Norvell starts the year 1-2 with an ugly performance in the only win over a bottom-half G6 program, what possible reason is there not to pull the trigger and fire him ahead of the Week 4 matchup with Central Arkansas? What more would anyone in Tallahassee need to see?
Everyone is prepared for the possibility of Norvell not finishing this season. That wouldn’t be a surprise. But the general expectation is that a three-week stretch in October against Louisville, Miami, and Clemson in conference play is what will do him in. But after that start, there’s no guarantee Norvell is the head coach past Week 3.
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