Florida State learned what its 2026 schedule would look like on Monday evening. We knew who the opponents were, but when FSU played certain teams could dictate wins and losses.
In the transfer portal era, it’s difficult to predict how teams will perform year over year. After all, nobody saw FSU going from 13-1 to 2-10, just like nobody saw Indiana going from 3-9 to 11-2 two years ago.
Many of the opponents on the schedule will have new coordinators, quarterbacks, and other roster changes due to acquisitions from the transfer portal. FSU has continuity at the coordinator spots, but will have a new quarterback and several new faces at different positions. Did they do enough to remain competitive in 2026?
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It’s hard to say, and we can only go off what we saw last year. Last year, here’s what their 2026 opponents accomplished in the regular season:
- New Mexico State (4-8)
- SMU (8-4)
- @ Alabama (10-2)
- Central Arkansas (3-9)
- Virginia (10-2)
- @ Louisville (8-4)
- @ Miami (10-2)
- Clemson (7-5)
- @ Boston College (2-10)
- @ Pittsburgh (8-4)
- NC State (7-5)
- Florida (4-8)
If Florida State were operating anywhere close to FSU standards, it would go into the Louisville game at 4-1 at worst. We can only go on what we’ve seen from FSU the last two years. They should beat New Mexico State, but Mike Norvell is allergic to winning ACC games. They could beat SMU, but I’ll believe it when I see it. He’s allergic to winning on the road, so the Alabama game is likely a loss.
Can Mike Norvell find a way to survive this schedule and start turning things around?
Virginia was an incredibly lucky team last year and really had no business winning 11 games. We’ll see if they fall off, but that should be a winnable game for FSU. So, let’s say they are 3-2 going into the two road games against Louisville and Miami.
If those lose those two games, that puts FSU at 3-4 going into the Clemson game. If they lose that one, they’re 3-5 with four games left. I’m sure Boston College will make FSU its “Red Bandana” game, but that’s a game FSU should win to get to 4-5. That means FSU would need to win two of the final three to reach a bowl.
The fact that’s considered progress is absurd.
If they lost on the road at Pitt and at home against NC State? There’s no need for Mike Norvell to coach the Florida game. In fact, if they lost at Pitt to to fall to 4-6, I'd fire Mike Norvell.
You already know I wanted him fired after the Stanford loss. This 2026 season could be the final nail in the coffin for him. There's a path to win eight games on this schedule if things fall right. I'll be rooting for Florida State to win every game, just as I have the past two years when they were bad.
If it goes bad again and Florida finally makes a change, I can't say I wouldn't be happy we finally reached that point.