Miami Hurricane fans have been confident they would beat FSU in 2025 since the Noles fell off like Big Mac toppings a year ago and finished 2-10. Ironically, the 2024 game wasn’t the blowout they thought it would be, considering how bad that FSU team played. However, the dynamic between the teams began to shift after that season.
The Noles hired new coordinators and got an injection of proven talent from the transfer portal to join some talented blue-chip players who took their lumps as freshmen a year ago. FSU started the season on fire, but stumbled in its first road game against Virginia last week. UVA has a better offense than Miami, but that loss was largely FSU beating itself, not executing plays on offense, and the defense missing tackles and lacking the physicality it had shown in the first three games.
The betting line for the Miami game opened at -5.5 for Miami and went to -6.5 in a hurry, with over 80 percent of the bets on the Canes. However, that line has shifted to -4.5 over the past two days, with more bets on the Noles, according to Fanduel. The over/under points total has dropped to 53.5.
I know most folks are focusing on how the FSU defense played against UVA and how that translates to how they'll play against Miami, but that's a mistake. Miami's offense doesn't have facets that threaten like UVA. This game Saturday night will be strength versus strength.
The FSU offense is the biggest strength of the Noles, and the Miami defense is its biggest strength. Whichever performs the best likely wins this one. There's a reason this betting line is less than a touchdown.