President Richard McCullough recently provided a three-page statement on the football program, his expectations, and what the administration plans on doing moving forward. The only issue is that he referenced all three of those topics without providing any details on what will be done, what the current expectations truly are, or how keeping coach Mike Norvell is still justified.
It was a gritty game and a pretty gutsy performance overall from Florida State against Miami, and you can give Norvell that, but the reality is that a loss is still a loss, and at some point, the Seminoles need more wins than losses. It has been two and a half seasons since Florida State truly looked like a winning team, and if Norvell makes it three, the cost of losing could increase dramatically.
Keeping Mike Norvell gets more expensive for Florida State as the chaos grows
At this point, everyone knows Florida State is in massive debt (which is all accounted for), which is part of the reason why Norvell's very expensive buyout has been shelved for the moment. The administration is not going to spend roughly $100 million to fire Norvell and his staff and hire all new replacements unless the decision must be made.
The problem that Florida State now faces has to do with the growing cost of college football rosters and the fact that players are unwilling to deal with a losing environment without being paid a premium for doing so. With a 3-4 record this season and just 10 wins since the end of the 2023 season, the frustration could quickly hit an expensive boiling point.
It has felt like the longer Norvell has stuck around, the more problems that begin to expose themselves. Recruits and transfer portal players do not like chaos; they want to move to programs that can get them to the NFL, and Florida State certainly does not look like one at the moment.
The Tallahassee fan factor will be at play
Streaming is certainly the big thing nowadays for nearly every program, but the gameday atmosphere and attendance are critical, especially when recruiting is involved. Players want to be in front of massive, lively crowds, and when that is taken away, the glitz and glamour surrounding a program tends to fall apart.
Florida State's viewership has been alive and well this season, but there is no doubt that a third-straight losing year would impact how fans respond next season, particularly if Norvell truly makes it that far.
The majority of fans do not want to see Norvell stick around, but frankly, I don't think there would be a significant enough fall off if the coach returns to make this the most important factor. Rather, the big issue involves the growing cost of a competitive roster, especially when the program has not been particularly competitive.
Already paying double?
It is hard to fully pin down the price of each roster, solely because that type of information is something that could become negative quickly. In Florida State's case, the cost of the roster has been rumored to be anywhere between $20 million and $30 million. I would like to think this team is on the lower end of that spectrum, but the reality is that Florida State is likely paying close to $30 million for a roster worth significantly less.
Finding good, quality players ready to produce out of the transfer portal can be difficult, and Norvell needed to pay up after back-to-back losing seasons. On top of that, roster retention and high school recruiting are also key, and Norvell certainly needed to overpay for those players as well.
Whether you keep him or get rid of him, Norvell is expensive given his current track record, and Florida State has already felt that impact.
Florida State's calm before the storm dilemma
Obviously, paying more than what a roster is worth simply because the results have not been there on the field is far from ideal. The real issue that Florida State could be running into involves reinvesting in Norvell and the roster, overpaying for some players because of the results, and then still needing to fire the staff.
No matter which way you slice it, Norvell needs an increased roster budget to field a more competitive team in the current ACC landscape. This is a strong team, but he is not getting the intended results, and more firepower needs to be added to consistently push back against a team like Miami. Money cannot buy consistency, but it can buy better players who make better plays more often.
Then, the tax that Norvell will again face due to the losing records comes into play, which means Florida State needs to increase the budget by, say, 75% instead of 50% just to compensate. That type of swing is understandable when a new coach arrives, or a program has historically struggled, but the fact that the Seminoles still need to pay for that this far into Norvell's tenure is an embarrassment.
The real kicker is when Florida State eventually opts to buy out Norvell, and then the heavy reinvestment into the program will fall completely flat. Cutting ties with Norvell sooner rather than later, especially before the offseason, could help Florida State save money in what will be an expensive situation regardless of the timing.
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