Believe it or not, fall camp is over, game week is here, and the season is upon us. Mike Norvell’s seventh season at the helm in Tallahassee, to be exact, and expectations aren’t particularly high.
Since going 13-0 to win the ACC title but missing the College Football Playoff in 2023, Norvell’s Seminoles have gone 7-18 (if you count the Orange Bowl blowout at the hands of Georgia) and have not won a road game over the last two seasons.
That’s unacceptable, but while Norvell has spent all the goodwill he earned with that 2023 campaign, he’s still cashing in from his massive contract extension, which runs through 2031 and carries a huge buyout that will still be around $50 million if he’s fired this year.
That buyout may have been the only thing that saved him after posting another losing record last year, and seemingly in preparation to pay it, the program pulled back from investing heavily in this year’s roster. And with a tough schedule in the ACC, despite only playing eight conference games in the unbalanced 17-team league, FSU’s win total is set at just 5.5 in the FanDuel Sportsbook.
So, before we get to Week 0, let’s go game-by-game and try to predict the outcome for this 2026 season.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Week 0 - vs. New Mexico State: 44-12 W
There will be some kinks to work out with Ashton Daniels replacing Tommy Castellanos at quarterback and Mike Norvell putting the headset back on as FSU’s offensive play-caller, but New Mexico State is the perfect Week 0 opponent to work those things out against.
It looks like it’ll be a blowout win, and an interesting look at the depth chart since Norvell is refusing to share it.
Week 1 - vs. No. 19 SMU: 31-24 L
After easing in against Conference USA competition, Florida State dives into the deep end against Kevin Jennings and SMU. By quite a few metrics, like net success rate and net adjusted EPA/play (per gameonpaper.com), Florida State outperformed SMU last season. In fact, the Noles finished well above where you would have expected a 5-7 team to be.
But then, FSU went out and got another turnover-prone QB to go along with Norvell’s trademark lack of late-game execution, so there isn’t much reason to believe those positive indicators in the spreadsheets will actually turn into wins on the field.
Week 2 - BYE
Week 3 - at Alabama: 28-12 L
Florida State shocked everyone when it jumped up and nabbed Alabama in Week 1 last year. And again, the Crimson Tide are breaking in a first-year starter at quarterback. This time, however, Keelon Russell will have a few games to get his sea legs before taking on the Noles. Plus, without Gus Malzahn’s option-attack to confuse Kane Wommack’s undisciplined back seven, the Tide should roll.
Week 4 - vs. Central Arkansas: 70-14 W
Mike Norvell can’t afford to show any mercy on his alma mater. He needs to run up the score as much as he can because if he starts 1-2, his job will most likely be on the line in Week 5 when Virginia comes to town. Style points don’t really matter, but I’d imagine he’ll take what he can get.
Week 5 - vs. Virginia: 23-20 W
The loss of quarterback Chandler Morris is significant, but by the end of last season, Tony Elliott’s Cavaliers were winning with defense anyway. Beau Pribula should give comparable QB play, assuming he stays healthy, but a team that had nearly every coin flip go its way last season is a prime candidate for regression.
A win in Week 5 likely saves Mike Norvell’s job because he cannot go into the next two weeks at 2-3. Anything less than 3-2 and Norvell is the first head coach fired in the 2026 season.
Week 6 - at Louisville: 27-17 L
Tony White’s defense had plenty of issues in 2025, but the biggest were the inability to stop the run and the lack of negative plays, and those things go hand-in-hand. If you can’t stop the run, you can’t force a team into passing downs when you can get creative with your blitz packages.
This year, it won’t just be Florida State; with Lincoln Kienholz’s athleticism at QB next to Isaac and Keyjuan Brown in the backfield, the Cardinals will have a devastating ground game. And if Louisville controls the pace, it’ll be tough for Daniels and a run-first FSU offense to come from behind.
Week 7 - at Miami: 45-17 L
Miami lost two games in the ACC last season, so everyone should be careful about getting carried away after the Hurricanes made it to the national championship game last year, but this roster is clearly head and shoulders above the rest of the conference. Miami was already outspending its peers, and because of its CFP run and FSU and Clemson’s lawsuit a few years ago, its war chest grew big enough to rip Darian Mensah and Cooper Barkate away from Duke at the last moment and cement its place as a legit title contender once again.
Florida State can be savvy with its moves around the margins, but there isn’t any Moneyball approach that can pull the Noles level with the Canes right now.
Week 8 - BYE
Week 9 - vs. Clemson: 17-14 L
Clemson is on a downslide with Dabo Swinney, but there’s still a real floor of talent in place that will prevent it from turning into a free fall. Unless he changes course and eventually starts to embrace the modern reality of the sport, he likely won’t have Clemson back in the CFP conversation, but for 2026, he still has a talented roster and one of the best wide receiver duos in the country.
I think Clemson sneaks this one out and then, at 3-5, it would be decision time for Norvell if the rip cord hasn’t already been pulled.
Week 10 - at Boston College: 31-20 W
Whoever is coaching the Noles in Week 10, Norvell, Tom Herman, or some other interim head coach, they still have no business losing to Bill O’Brien’s Boston College Eagles. Yes, FSU built this team on a tighter budget than it probably needed to, but it still easily outspent BC. Players like Duce Robinson, Ousmane Kromah, and Ja’Bril Rawls, talents that BC has no access to, will carry FSU to its first road win since November 25, 2023, in Gainesville.
Week 11 - at Pittsburgh: 25-22 W
Weeks 11 and 12 are the swing games that will determine if FSU hits its win total. For Norvell’s sake, it's unfortunate that they come after the gauntlet that could get him fired. Still, this is another case where FSU’s high-end skill talent should be a cut above Pitt, which suffered heavy losses in the Transfer Portal despite retaining promising young QB Mason Heintschel after his freshman season.
Week 12 - vs. NC State: 27-18 W
Like Pitt, NC State paid up to keep its QB, CJ Bailey, but lost all the pieces around him. Unless the quarterback is one of the true elite difference-makers, which I question if Bailey is, you can argue the spread-it-around model FSU opted for when signing Ashton Daniels is a more favorable roster construction strategy.
Week 13 - vs. Florida: 34-28 L
Jon Sumrall has been a head coach for four years at two different schools, and he’s already won three conference championships. Sure, they were at a lower level, and no, I don’t think he’ll suddenly thrust the Gators into SEC title contention, but that was a talented roster he inherited, and he’s clearly a better coach than Billy Napier. FSU gets to six, but not seven, at least not before a bowl game and some very tough offseason decisions.
Add us as a preferred source on Google