FSU football rolled through the first few weeks of the season, largely untested after its season-opening upset victory over Alabama. The Noles easily covered the betting spread in all three games, +13.5, -45.5, and -45.5. All three FSU games have gone OVER the total amount.
The Noles will face their biggest test since the season opener when they travel for the first time this year to face the Virginia Cavaliers. The betting spread has been anywhere from -6.5 to -7.5 on various betting sites. The over/under points total is 57.5 on Fanduel. Those odds imply a weird 33-25 type victory for the Noles.
The over/under line opened much lower, but bettors have hammered the OVER because both offenses have shown themselves capable of putting up points in a hurry. Both teams played at home over the weekend, but UVA will have the benefit of not having to travel this week, granted Tallahassee isn’t a crazy distance away from Charlottesville.
FSU is the first P4 team to have different players produce at least 170 all-purpose yards in a half in consecutive games since 2021
— FSU Football (@FSUFootball) September 22, 2025
🍢 @Ducerobinson2 173 in 1st half vs. East Texas A&M
🍢 @Micahi_Danzy 176 in 1st half vs. Kent State#NoleFamily | #KeepCLIMBing pic.twitter.com/cCMJzrJLyz
Virginia’s toughest game was against NC State, a road game where they led by 10 points at halftime, but choked away in the second half. They have beaten Coastal Carolina, William & Mary, and Stanford. That’s not exactly a murder’s row list of opponents.
Virginia appears better than most thought in the preseason, especially with the injuries they endured. Much of their success revolves around their transfer quarterback Chandler Morris. Their offense averaged 45.5 points per game, but they allowed 19.5.
Can UVA score enough points against the FSU defense(that’s better than UVA’s)? I don’t doubt that FSU will score 30+ points against this Virginia defense. Whether UVA’s offense keeps up remains to be seen. It’ll be interesting to see what the final numbers on the spread will be, but over 90 percent of the bets are on the Noles right now.