Florida State basketball (7-6, 0-0 ACC) won its last two non-conference games before beginning ACC play on Tuesday night on the road against No. 12 North Carolina (12-1, 0-0 ACC). Both teams were in action a week ago, with FSU defeating Jacksonville and North Carolina defeating East Carolina in blowout fashion.
The Noles will enter the matchup as big betting underdogs at +16.5, with the over/under points total at 159.5, accordin to Fanduel.com. Those odds imply an 88-72 North Carolina win.
The biggest issue for FSU in this game will be the size of North Carolina. FSU has zero interior defense, and North Carolina rebounds the ball well. They’ll likely have a ton of second-chance points and points in the paint. They take care of the ball, only averaging 10 turnovers per game, which likely means FSU will have a difficult time turning them over and creating offensive opportunities in transition. That’s been a major hurdle for FSU against the top teams it has played.
The other compounded issue is the number of three-point attempts per game, with only 31.4 percent made. Those empty possessions have created insurmountable leads early in games against ranked opponents. Maybe FSU can catch fire from beyond the arc? That hasn’t happened in a long time, and FSU will likely struggle to penetrate consistently enough to get to the rim. However, that’s the approach I’d take. FSU has been shooting it better from the free-throw line lately, and it at least slows the game down and could get their front court in foul trouble.
North Carolina will look to rebound and get into transition for easy baskets. It’s going to be a tough ask or a limited FSU team. The game will start at 7 p.m. and air on ESPN2.