![Florida State has a mound conference during a NCAA softball game at Katie Seashole Pressly Stadium in Gainesville, FL on Tuesday, April 28, 2026. [Alan Youngblood/Gainesville Sun]](https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/upload/c_crop,x_0,y_0,w_2484,h_1397/c_fill,w_720,ar_16:9,f_auto,q_auto,g_auto/images/ImagnImages/mmsport/270/01krstgqzxv3gs641wn9.jpg "Florida State has a mound conference during a NCAA softball game at Katie Seashole Pressly Stadium in Gainesville, FL on Tuesday, April 28, 2026. [Alan Youngblood/Gainesville Sun]")
Florida State softball (51-9) staved off elimination twice on Saturday, blowing out Jacksonville State and avenging a previous loss against Stetson to send them home. The Noles will face the UCF Knights in the Tallahassee Regional finals for the opportunity to advance to Super Regional play. FSU must defeat UCF twice, and we like our chances after watching Florida State come alive on Saturday, and looking at UCF’s track record against good teams throughout the season.
First, FSU is 33-3 at home. They don’t lose much in front of their home fans, which made the loss against Stetson even more surprising. UCF is a solid team, 5-10 against Quad 1 teams and ranked as high as No. 15 nationally in March. They have some power, with five players with 11+ home runs. They only strike out in 12.7 percent of their at-bats, and they have a .426 on-base percentage.
They are not huge threats to steal, aside from two players with 10 steals each. Defensively, they are solid with a .971 fielding percentage. Pitching-wise, they rely on Isabella Vega a ton. She’s responsible for 39 percent of their innings pitched. She’s not overpowering, with only 101 strikeouts and 67 walks in 140.1 innings. She’s allowed 20 home runs and hit 25 batters. The other pitcher who’s started the second-most games is Ava Stuewe. She’s pitched 60 innings. allowed 46 walks and 36 strikeouts.
UCF is a solid team, but Florida State should win these two games unless they find ways to beat themselves.
22 runs, 30 hits and seven homers? That’ll play✅#Team43 pic.twitter.com/1qgdPWte11
— Florida State Softball 🥎 (@FSU_Softball) May 17, 2026
UCF might try to save Vega if they can, and pitch Stuewe in game one. The other arms they have seem to struggle with control and walk nearly a batter per inning. It’s a good matchup for the Florida State offense, and teams with similar caliber offenses have beat up on UCF this year. Florida beat them 7-0 in both games. Duke beat them 5-2. Baylor and Georgia handled them.
As long as the Florida State offense shows up, and I think they will against this UCF pitching staff. Florida State’s pitching staff should handle what UCF brings, as long as they avoid a ton of walks(something Danley struggled with against Stetson).
If Florida State wins the first game, that momentum will likely carry over into game two in front of the home crowd, similar to how it did on Saturday. The first game will start at noon.
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