The preseason coaches poll for the 2026 college football season was released on Tuesday, another sign that football season is right around the corner. Unsurprisingly, after back-to-back losing seasons and going two years without a win on the road, the Seminoles did not crack the top 25. Still, somehow, the coaches poll may have overrated Mike Norvell’s 2026 team.
Now, there’s no reason to pour it on. Everyone knows the state of the Florida State program right now. The most likely scenario is that this is a lame-duck year for Norvell. It seems that FSU’s front office kept a tight budget through the offseason, even in a historic fundraising year, in case the school is forced to pay his $50 million buyout after another disappointing season.
Still, it’s worth acknowledging that this team, constructed on that tight budget, with another offensive line overhaul and journeyman QB Ashton Daniels at the controls, probably didn’t deserve the 13 voting points it received, according to Pete Nakos.
Those 13 voting points, if you count the rest of the “others receiving votes,” would slot FSU at No. 40 in the country by this theoretical extended poll. That’s not outlandish for a program that finished exactly No. 40 in the country by net points per drive last year and No. 41 by Bill Connelly’s SP+.
However, FSU has gone 7-17 over the last two years, so any benefit of the doubt is too much.
Florida State received 13 voting points in preseason coaches poll
Last season, four of Florida State’s seven losses came by one score. Over the last two years, the Seminoles are 1-7 in one-score games. That typically means a team is bound for some positive regression, but it’s not that simple.
Sure, in some instances, a one-score game is like a coin flip. There’s an oblong inflated ball that’s going to bounce weird ways. In that sense, football has a considerable amount of randomness to it. However, some coaches are better, or, like Norvell, worse in tight games.
Some one-score losses depend on the bounce of a football. Others land on the shoulders of a head coach, either for an in-game decision or for putting a poorly coached, undisciplined team on the field. When the sample size is that significant over the last two seasons, it’s pretty clear that Norvell is responsible for a good amount of his team’s shortcomings in those situations.
Then, you add in the fact that Florida State hasn’t won a road game since it went into The Swamp on November 25, 2023, and beat Florida 24-15, and it’s hard to understand why anyone would throw votes the Seminoles way.
Sure, teams like Hawaii, Jacksonville State, Cal, and Western Michigan received votes, and FSU would be favored over all four at a neutral site, almost undoubtedly. 54 teams received votes. By talent alone, Florida State better be in the top 54 teams in the country.
Daniels is getting serious fall camp buzz, and the Seminoles retained top playmakers like Ousmane Kromah, Duce Robinson, and Ja’Bril Rawls. Robinson and Rawls are two of the best players in the country at their respective positions. Yet, just because there’s talent doesn’t mean there should be trust.
Especially with a tough schedule ahead, I wouldn’t trust the Noles to deliver on that potential, and it’s hard to see why any coaches did this preseason.
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