Florida State has lost its last two games, committing six turnovers in those two losses, and that’s largely been the difference between starting the season 5-0 and 3-2. The Noles look to get back into the winning column when they host the Pittsburgh Panthers on Saturday at noon.
FSU opened as -9.5 betting favorites with an over/under points total of 58.5. Those odds imply a 34-24 type game. However, the early betting suggests bettors believe the opening line is a gift, because it’s already ballooned to -10.5, according to FanDuel.com.
It makes sense for several reasons. FSU has beaten itself with turnovers in the past two games. Saturday’s game is at home, and it’ll be the first road start for Pittsburgh's freshman quarterback, Mason Heintschel.
He made his first career start last week against Boston College, passing for over 300 yards and throwing four touchdowns. We saw what Tony White’s defense can do to an inexperienced quarterback making his first start on the road in week one when they hosted Alabama.
Pittsburgh doesn’t have a great running game and leans more towards the pass offensively. FSU can’t fall asleep thinking Heintschel will stand in the pocket and not run. He had 10 rushing attempts against Boston College last week.
The other dynamic is that Pittsburgh hasn’t beaten a good team yet this season, and blew 17-point leads against Louisville and West Virginia. Pat Narduzzi’s defense is usually sound, but it allowed 30+ points against the Mountaineers and the Cardinals.
The oddsmakers think FSU can score points against this Pittsburgh defense, and probably force the young quarterback into making enough mistakes to get the cover in Tallahassee as long as they don't turn the ball over multiple times again.